Today ( Sept. 26th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged up last night. Meals on DCE today continue to rise. And soybean meal also increase in cash price, with the trading volume turning pale. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,380 to 3,420 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,420, Shandong 3,380-3,400, Jiangsu 3,400-3,420, Dongguan 3,400-3,420, Guangxi 3,400-3,410). The reason why soybean meal follow to increase in spot price is that oil mills are positive toward later market where soybean supply may get tighter under the escalating trade spat. But soybean meal is still facing the following bearish fundamentals: peak season of aquaculture will end soon as weather gets cool, widened spread between soybean meal and mixed meal increases the substitution amount of the later, and the contagious ASF is slashing the hog replenishment. However, the aforementioned bearish fundamentals counts nothing in face of the benefits from trade war, so the overall trend of soybean meal will continue to edge up in fluctuation. Buyers shall decide proper timing for purchase and those with enough stock can just wait.
Imported rapeseed meal: Today prices for imported rapeseed meal go up, of which the quotation in coastal areas is 2,520-2,610 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 (Qinzhou COFCO 2,560 yuan/tonne, up 20; Dongguan Shenheng 1901-110 upon basis; Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian 1901+150 upon basis). The deteriorate US-China trade spat has created a bullish market for domestic meals, for soybean supply will show gaps from December to February next year. But as weather gets cool, consumption on rapeseed meal will gradually go lower, especially when the constant expansion of ASF is cracking down demand for domestic meals. However, the bearish fundamentals counts nothing in face of the trade war, so rapeseed meal price will still go up in fluctuation, and may see frequent fluctuations due to trade talks. Buyers with adequate stock shall not chase up prices excessively and can wait for callbacks to make replenishment.
Cottonseed meal: US soybean went up in price last night. Today meal futures on DCE open higher and continue to march up. Due to the rise of soybean meal spots by 20-50 and its own limited supply under a low stock, cottonseed meal increases by 30 yuan/tonne partially today. But the upward space is limited by the sluggish demand amid the constant expansion of ASF and the end of aquaculture from South China to the North as weather gets cool. On the whole, short-term cottonseed meal price is predicted to trend up, so buyer shall replenish for a safety stock on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 50,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. A firm foreign market plus fair shipments at port, participants holding stocks at port are now supporting the price for a bullish market. So fishmeal market will keep firm in the short run.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
