Cofeed News: edible palm oil at China’s ports this week ended Sept. 14th totals 463,700 tonnes, unchanged from last week, but it is down 41,300 tonnes as compared to 505,000 tonnes the corresponding period last month by 8.2% and up 125,700 tonnes from 338,000 tonnes year on year by 37.9%. Stocks of industrial palm oil settle at 73,800 tonnes, about 1,200 tonnes and 1.6% lower than 75,000 tonnes attained last week.

    Albeit palm oil in North China and South China piles up in stockpiles this week, expanded price disparity stirs up buyers’ interest in market purchases. To be specific, price disparity between soybean oil and palm oil till Friday further expands to 897 yuan/tonne, about 61 yuan/tonne higher than 836 yuan/tonne attained last week. Under such circumstances, turnover this week picks up momentum, with 9,500 tonnes of palm oil traded versus 3,950 tonnes last week

    Whereas, palm oil sourced from Malaysia presents a spike after its export tariff is reduced to zero in September. According to cargo surveyor ITS, China has already imported 104,600 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia in the first 15th day of September, up 87,900 tonnes from 16,700 tonnes in week 33. As some shipments scheduled in August are delayed to September, estimated imports in September are likely to reach 0.4 Mln tonnes for 24-degree palm oil. But when it turns cold, stockpiling to finish in late September will put down palm oil consumption, especially consumption in the downstream. By the way, approximately 0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil are expected in October and November on average, if such, stockpiles of palm oil will show a mild rise.

                                       Figure: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years

    According to Cofeed, estimated imports of palm oil are shown as follows: August: 0.37-0.40 Mln tonnes (0.25-0.27 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); September: 0.47-0.53 Mln tonnes (0.35-0.40 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); October: 0.47-0.48 Mln tonnes (0.34-0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); November: 0.47-0.49 Mln tonnes (0.35-0.36 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), all basically unchanged from last estimates. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.