Today ( Sept. 28th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its rises last night, so do meals on DCE today, followed by soybean meal to increase in cash price, with few deals clinched. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,450 to 3,500 yuan/tonne, up 30-60 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,480, Shandong 3,440-3,480, Jiangsu 3,480-3,500, Dongguan 3,450-3,500, Guangxi 3,450-3,470). On one hand, ending demand for soybean meal is crippled by African siwne fever (21 cases in 8 provinces), the end of aquaculture peak season due to the dropping temperature. In addition, the widened spread between soybean meal and mixed meal has increased the usage amount of the later, among which rapeseed meal has been added into hog feed. For all this, the trend of soybean meal is guided by trade war, which has made dents in soybean supply from December 2018 to February 2019. In this case, oil mills are trying to force up prices for a bullish market. So soybean meal will maintain its upward trend in fluctuation before trade war ends. But the gap of soybean supply may be narrower than expected as Argentina and Brazil both turn to import US soybean, while export their own beans to China. Besides, US-China trade talk may restart in the mid-to-late October with the upcoming of US mid-term election. Once trade talks restarting, soybean meal may suffer strong fluctuations, so buyers holding enough stocks shall not force up prices excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal fluctuate in a steady state, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,560 to 2,650 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne (Qinzhou COFCO 2,590, up 30; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan 2,620, up 50; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 1901+150 upon basis). Oil mills are propping up prices for a bullish market as participants show concerns over the soybean supply from December 2018 to February 2019 under trade war, and rapeseed meal welcomes an increasing usage amount in feed due to its price differentiation with soybean meal, whose high price has further enlarged the spread. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will have small potential to fall as trade war goes on, and will maintain its overall upward trend in fluctuation. But slack season will interrupt for the time being after double holidays, plus the rampant ASF, and a new round of trade talks may be declared in mid-to-late October with the upcoming of mid-term election in the US. Hence, rapeseed meal may suffer frequent fluctuations. And buyers shall not force up price excessively and shall wait for callbacks to replenish on the dips.
Cottonseed meal: US soybean extended its rises last night, so do meals on DCE today, followed by soybean meal spots to increase by 30-70 yuan/tonne. The ongoing trade war has largely lifted import cost of soybean and made dents in it later supply, so soybean meal will find it easier to have price hikes. In such case, cottonseed meal may see a growing demand, so it also have a 20-100 gain partially today. As soybean meal surges in price this week due to the intensifies trade spat, cottonseed meal may also maintain its price growth before new cottonseed floods into market, so buyers shall replenish for a safety stock on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 50,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Due to the end of festival stockpiling and thinner demand in Northern Port, traders holding stocks begin to soften the prices, but the fishmeal market will mostly keep stable in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
