Today ( Sept. 29th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean took plunges last night after report by USDA showed that both US soybean output last year and its stock ended September 1st this year kicked higher than market’s expectation. And meals on DCE get closed for the weekend. Spot prices of domestic soybean meal remain stable today, some seeing falls, and the trading volume turns pale. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,450 to 3,500 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne in a steady state against yesterday (Tianjin 3,470, Shandong 3,450-3,460, Jiangsu 3,480-3,500, Dongguan 3,470-3,490, Guangxi 3,470-3,500). On the whole, soybean meal price may stay stagnant and have callbacks in small fluctuation for the following reasons. First, demand from aquaculture will turn slack. Second, downstream stockpiling has basically finished with the upcoming of the National Day. Moreover, the current price of soybean meal has further expanded the price gap with rapeseed meal, thus reducing its own usage amount. But as oil mills are still positive to later market, it will see no slump before the end of trade war, which has tightened soybean supply from December to January next year, and will remain its overall upward trend. For all this, buyers still need to watch out for those staying at high prices as slack season will hover for a while after holidays, and for strong fluctuations brought by trade talks expected to be declared in October. Buyers with enough stocks can just wait and see.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal fluctuate steadily, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,550-2,640 yuan/tonne, fluctuating up and down by 20-30 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi offers 2,550, down 30; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2620; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian not offered). This week, rapeseed meal stock has fallen to 23,000 tonnes by 20%. Rapeseed meal price will maintain upward trend before trade war ends since its usage amount has increased due to its spread with soybean meal, whose price is brought higher by the trade tension. But slack season will interrupt for the time being after double holidays, plus the rampant ASF, and a new round of trade talks may be declared with the upcoming of US mid-term election in early November; hence, rapeseed meal price may suffer strong fluctuations. By the way, buyers are suggested not to force up price excessively.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is still up 10 yuan/tonne partially, since its stock is further reduced by its increasing usage amount as a substitute for soybean meal, whose price goes upward when high import costs and supply gaps still walk together with the ongoing trade war. However, both the rampant ASF and the slack season of aquaculture are cutting down meal demand, while new cottonseed meal is about to go marketing, so cottonseed meal price is hard to jump high, and may suffer fluctuations when new cottonseed meal floods into market. Overall, it will trend up in fluctuation before trade spat ends.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 50,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. The firm foreign quotation is supporting the overall domestic market, but demand may turn slack as weather cools down, and stock holders at ports just wait on the sideline. Overall, quotation for fishmeal will see very few riffles.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
