Today ( Sept. 29th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

     Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt inflict on the market. Add to that, narrowed price gap between Chinese soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. Amid escalation of trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November contribute to soybean shortage concerns during December and Febuary next year, which also leads to importer' strong wills to soybean bids in China. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply and demand balance struggles in trade spats. 

    Cottonseed: Cottonseed price gets restrained by the weak performance of its by-products and dismal crush margin in oil mills and oil mills’ caution against purchasing high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. However, besides the damaging trade spat, the amount of new cottonseed is still small on the market, while traffic tensions and transportation fees is blocking cottonseed bound for mainland China from Xinjiang. So the cottonseed market still remains stable. It is predicted that the overall market will go strong before large amounts of new cottonseed enter into the market, but those high-priced cottonseed may suffer some callback risks. 

    Summary: US soybean experienced a slump in overnight trading, after USDA revealed a high-than-expected US soybean production last year and soybean stocks ended September 1st in its report. Whereas, soybean oil and palm oil maintain stable performance amid stagnant turnover when DCE closes today. Honestly, there is limited upward potentials for oil prices under its oversupply and traders?arbitrage. To be specific, oilseed crush is lifted to 1.99 Mln tonnes high though golden stockpiling finishes before Chinese holidays, under which growing oil production together with intensive palm oil arrivals form the oversupply pattern. Additionally, some traders take the arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils as trade woes give more support to soybean meal than oils. For all this, oils are probable to maintain mild uptrend amid frequent fluctuations as long as trade friction with the US persists. Amid escalation of trade tensions with the US, a serious soybean shortage in China to come during December and February bolsters oils, and strong crude oil performance attributed to US sanctions against Iran also props up oil performance. In this way, crushers remain bullish for oil market later, buyers thereby had better balance purchases and sales well, that is to say, maintain cautious if chasing high bids and build up their inventories upon bargain hunting.  

    Soybean oil: Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,700-5,800 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,700-5,710 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700, Zhangjiagang traders stop to quote, Guangzhou traders 5,720-5,730). 

    Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas stabilize at 4,630 to 4,750 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 4,720-4,730; Rizhao and Zhangjiagang traders stop to quote; Guangzhou traders 4,630-4,650; Xiamen traders 4,750). 

    Imported rapeseed oil: Prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 6,290-6,490 yuan/tonne (Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian, Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong and Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi all stop to quote). Rapeseed oil still struggles on the market: possible soybean shortage in supply amid trade woes still drives up rapeseed oil performance, yet when intensive oil stockpiling finishes ahead of holidays, slack demand in the period and heavy oil stockpiles otherwise drag down rapeseed oil. To be specific, rapeseed oil hits high in stockpiles-- South China at round 0.14 Mln tonnes with 6% growth this week, soybean oil at over 1.65 Mln tonnes, add to that, palm oil arrivals also see a spike this month. Taken all into consideration, rapeseed oil is overall to trade up, buyers thereby had better stay on the sideline if having stocks at hand.  

    Cottonseed oil: US soybean took plunges last night due to a higher seasonal stock than expected. Domestically, soybean oil falls slightly in its steady pace. And cottonseed oil at low price increases by 50 yuan/tonne today, for oil mills are unwilling to sell amid small cottonseed oil output, especially as forward soybean supply is also inadequate under the trade tensions. But the price hike is not impressive due to the oversupply of staple oil and the end of festival stockpiling. Overall, it will suffer narrow fluctuations in the short run, but will still go strong in fluctuation before trade war ends. Buyers are suggested to replenish for a safety stock on the dips.