I. National Stocks

       Cofeed News: This week (as of 28th Sept), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 460,100 tonnes, down 14,700 tonnes by 3.1% from 474,800 tonnes last week, yet up 29,200 tonnes by 6.8% from 430,900 tonnes of the same period last month, and up 103,200 tonnes by 28.9% from 356,900 tonnes of the same period last year. Besides, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 64,300 tonnes, down 11,600 tonnes by 15.3% from 75,900 tonnes last week.

       This week, total stock of domestic palm oil edges down, but palm oil purchase is still going on due to the improved import profit. According to latest estimate by Cofeed, China will import 350,000 tonnes of 24-degree palm oil on average in October and November. Despite a spread of 1,035 yuan/tonne between domestic palm oil and soybean oil spots, palm oil will be severely slapped in trading volume, for edible oil market will enter a slack season after National Day and palm oil demand will also turn pale with the coming of winter.Domestic palm oil stock will continue to rise later, but at a slower pace. 

       Fig.: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years

II．Goods Arrivals 

       According to Cofeed, import volume in September may have fallen to 420,000-480,000 tonnes (24- degree 300,000-350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), a decline of the discreet value given last week. And the estimate in October is 470,000 to 480,000 tonnes (24-degree 340,000-350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes), holding the estimate given last week. And the estimate in November is 470,000 to 490,000 tonnes (24 melting degree 350,000-370,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), both unchanged from statistics given last week. (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated on the basis of latest shipment and violation in shipment).