Today ( Oct. 8th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Due to strong weekly export data, plus the possible harvest delay of US soybean incurred from rainy weather in Midwest states, US soybean last Friday gained another 9.75 cents to 869 cents, totally gaining 23.5 cents from that before China’s National Day. So meals rise substantially on DCE today, which is also due to increasing import cost by the RMB devaluation. And soybean meal spots follow to rise, with those at low price attracting some deals for replenishment, but the trading volume may keep flat as buyers are prudent in forcing up prices. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,550 to 3,600 yuan/tonne, up 70-120 yuan/tonne against that before China’s National Day (Tianjin 3,600, Shandong 3,550-3,560, Jiangsu 3,560-3,580, Dongguan 3,580, Guangxi 3,580-3,600). As forward soybean supply is disturbing the market when there is no sign of a thaw in the US-China trade disputes, oil mills are striving for large price hikes for bullish later market. But high price of soybean meal may in turn curb its down demand, for market may turn to rapeseed meal in view of the large price gap, especially amid the slack spell after holidays. All in all, soybean meal will continue to trend upside in fluctuation before trade conflicts end. And buyers can choose to roll over, and replenish for a safety stock on the dip instead of chasing up prices excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal see gains today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,600-2,670 yuan/tonne, up 30-90 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi offers 2,600, up 50; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,670, up 50; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian not offered). Taking the advantage of forward soybean supply gap amid trade war, oil mills are active in lifting soybean meal prices, which in turn expands the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. So rapeseed meal, as a substitute, enjoys an increasing demand, continuing to see a declining stock in coastal areas. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will go upside in fluctuation before trade conflicts thaw. But slack season will interrupt for the time being after double holidays, plus the rampant ASF, and a new round of trade talks may be declared with the upcoming of US mid-term election on November 6th or amid the G20 Summit on November 30th; hence, rapeseed meal price may suffer strong volatility. And buyers shall replenish appropriately on the dip and not to chase up prices excessively.
Cottonseed meal: US soybean gained 23.5 cents/bushel over China’s National Day, coupled by RMB devaluation, so meals rise substantially on DCE today. On the back of the rise of soybean meal spots by 70-120 yuan/tonne, cottonseed meal also increases by 20-100 yuan/tonne amid its tight supply. But as the African swine fever sprawls and the aquaculture demand gets pale, cottonseed meal may fail to escape short-term fluctuations before new cottonseed meal floods in, but it will hold the overall upside trend in fluctuations as trade conflicts persists on. By the way, buyers are suggested to replenish on the dip for a safety stock.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with modest shipment at port generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 51,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. As fishmeal demand may slip with end of aquaculture peak season, traders with stocks at port are taking a wait-and-see approach. Therefore, fishmeal market will keep stable in the short run.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
