According to Cofeed, this week (as of 5th Oct), details of soybean oil stock and amounts in outstanding contracts are as follows:

      Unit: 0’000 tonne

      Soybean oil demand has reduced substantially by the end of double-festival stockpiling in late September,conversely, its output is accumulating sequentially for high operation rate under healthy crush margin, which right along brings soybean oil stock to fresh records.As of October 5th, domestic soybean oil stock has amounted to 1,737,200 tonnes, up 28,400 tonnes by 1.66% as against 1,708,800 tonnes last week, up 121,200 tonnes by 7.5% from 1,616,000 tonnes of the same period last month, and up 187,200 tonnes by 12.08% from 1,550,000 tonnes of the same period last year.Stock of the same period in the recent five years averages at 1,325,760 tonnes.

      Despite declining operation rate amid the National Day last week, soybean crush volume in domestic oil mills totals 1,739,900 tonnes (soybean meal 1,374,521 tonnes and soybean oil 330,581), down 254,900 tonnes by 12.773% from ,1994,800 tonnes last week.The operation rate (capacity utilization)for soybean this week is 49.96%, up by 7.28% from 56.97% in the previous week. And the crush volume will be around 1,730,000 tonnes next week (Week 41) due to the downtime in most mills, and it will be as high as 1,900,000 tonnes in week 42.Totally, soybean oil stock is predicted to stay at historic highs throughout October.

      In the coming months, soybean import will be subjected to the trade war, during which inbound volume will be 5.9 Mln tonnes in November, 5.5 Mln tonnes in December, and less in January 2019. Currently, the arrival is only around 3.8-4.0 Mln tonnes. November will see less and less arrivals of soybean, which may severely affects operation rate;under such circumstances, soybean oil stock will welcome inflection points in November.

　　 Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years