Today ( Oct. 11th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Contributed by its bumper harvests amid the US-China trade tensions and concerns over a bearish report from USDA on Thursday evening, US soybean ended very lower last night after the overnight slump of US stock market. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,600 to 3,650 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,650, Shandong 3,600-3,640, Jiangsu 3,600-3,650, Dongguan 3,620-3,650, Guangxi 3,610-3,640). At present, soybean meal still faces bearish fundamentals, where feed consumption is crippled by small amount and replenishment of pigs under rampant ASF. Meanwhile, some large feed companies have modified their feed formula by increasing the adding ratio of mixed meals like rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal due to the high price of soybean meal, for which soybean meal stock in coastal areas has hit 940,000 tonnes by a weekly increase of 6%. Despite all this, the trend of soybean meal is finally guided by the trade tension, rather than fundamentals. And concerns over forward soybean supply is mounting as there is slim hope for a thaw in the trade tensions. Overall, soybean meal will maintain its upward trend in fluctuation. But market has been overbought technically amid the continuous sharp rebounds after the holidays, and most downstream companies have replenished after a three high trading day on soybean spot market. Besides, market participants have predicted a bearish report tonight, in which US soybean and stock may be raised by USDA. Therefore, participants shall watch out for short-term volatility risk, and buyers with enough stock can just wait and replenish proper at low prices upon callbacks.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal basically keep stable today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,680-2,760 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Maple, Guangxi offers 2,690; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,720; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 1901+130 upon basis). Rapeseed meal enjoys satisfactory demand for a spread of 900 yuan/tonne with soybean meal, and its increasing appending proportion in pig feed to 8% from 3%, as well as to 35% in aquaculture feed from 25%. In addition, forward soybean supply will get tighter and tighter since there is slim hopes for a thaw in US-China trade tensions. For this, oil mills are looking forward to bullish later market, and rapeseed meal price will keep trending up in volatility. But report from USDA today may be bearish to the market, so Buyer can just wait, in case that rapeseed meal will have adjustment in narrow fluctuation after sharp rises.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with modest shipment at port generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 52,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Encouraged by a firm foreign market out from slack demand amid the completion of aquaculture, traders at port still take a wait-and-see approach, thus basically stabilizing the quotation of fishmeal.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal partially has another gain of 20 yuan/tonne today, which is attributed to its tight supply under increasing demand since its price gap with soybean meal has been enlarged after soybean meal spots gain 10-20 steadily. Overall, cottonseed price will go upside in fluctuation before trade tensions ease. But it may suffer short volatility after new cottonseed enters into market during the rampant ASF and slack demand from aquaculture, and some prices at high has already seen callbacks today. Buyers holding enough stocks can just wait and see.
(USD $1=CNY 6.93)
