Soybean: Operation rate in oil mills drops sharply due to the National Day, so soybean stock continues to increase this week. But the increment is limited by the small amount of soybean arriving at the port this week, since the total imported amount will be relatively small in October. Until Week 40 (as of Oct 5th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal area amounts to 7,354,000 tonnes, an increase of 57,400 tonnes by 0.78% from 7,296,600 tonnes last week, and a large increase of 66.34% compared to 4,421,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Imported soybean will see a smaller amount in the fourth quarter, which is predicted to present a declining stock, with some supply tensions in December and January.

      Soybean meal: Soybean meal stock continues to rise this week due to a declining demand from downstream companies during the National Day. Until this week (as of Oct 5th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills amounts to 936,700 Mln tonnes, up 50,100 tonnes by 5.65% from 886,600 tonnes last week, and up by 18.18% from 792,600 tonnes during the same period last year. And as crush volume in oil mills will fall down to 1.73 Mln tonnes next week, coupled with the stockpiling after holiday, soybean meal stock is predicted to show slight decline. 

      This week, outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills have a sharp increase since this week spans from September to October. As of October 5th, contracts in main domestic coastal oil mills hold 5,771,900 tonnes unfinished, up 1,050,700 tonnes by 22.25% from 4,721,200 tonnes last week, and up by 25.01% from 4,617,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year.

      Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

      Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

      Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years