Today ( Oct. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean presented small rebounds last night due to a lower-than-expected output forecast in USDA’s report, but meals on DCE drop sharply today due to the technical overbought and market’s rumor that US might seek to settle trade conflicts with China at G20 Summit in late November. And domestic soybean meal follows to decline in spot price and trades lower. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,560 to 3,630 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,590, Shandong 3,560-3,600, Jiangsu 3,600-3,630, Dongguan 3,600-3,620, Guangxi 3,610-3,630). Amid the low pig replenishment under rampant ASF, some large feed companies, facing high soybean meal price, seek to adjust the feed ratio by adding more mixed meals, among which rapeseed meal has nearly hit 8% from prior 3% in hog feed and to 35% from 25% in aqua feed. In addition, China Feed Industry Association will solicit public opinions about reducing soybean meal consumption and setting cap on maximum protein content. Despite all this, the trend of soybean meal is finally guided by the trade tension, rather than fundamentals. And oil mills are active in supporting the prices with concerns over forward soybean supply is mounting as there is slim hope for a thaw in the trade tensions. Hence, soybean meal will see no slump currently. All in all, soybean meal will continue to trend upside in fluctuation before trade conflicts end. Buyers may as well stand on the sidelines and make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal basically keep stable today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,680-2,760 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Maple, Guangxi offers 2,680, down 10; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,740, stable; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 1901+130 upon basis). Due to its widened spread with soybean meal, rapeseed meal sees an increasing demand after feed companies modify to increase rapeseed meal ratio in feed formula. In addition, forward soybean supply will get tighter and tighter during the ongoing trade tensions. For this, oil mills are looking forward to bullish later market. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will keep trending up in volatility, and buyers can just wait for a steady fall and then replenish on the dip.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with common shipment at port generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is priced at 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 52,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 51,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. While shipment at ports is lower down by the demand, the foreign market keeps firm in addition to the existing pressure of RMB devaluation. In face of the co-existence of the bullish and the bearish, fishmeal market may run steadily in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: For the news that China and US presidents might meet over the G20 Summit in late November, meals on DCE slump today, followed by soybean meal to lose 10-20 yuan/tonne, and cottonseed meal stays stagnant stops increasing and keeps stable for its low end demand. Cottonseed meal suffers no declines at present, mainly due to its tight supply under increasing demand for its widened price spread with soybean meal. Overall, it will go upside in fluctuation before trade tensions ease, but may suffer short volatility after new cottonseed floods into market.
(USD $1=CNY 6.90)
