Today ( Oct. 15th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed higher again last Friday due to the bullish report by USDA. But today meals on DCE continue to ebb, and spots of domestic soybean meal slip and trade flat. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,540 to 3,610 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne against last Friday. (Tianjin 3,600, Shandong 3,540-3,600, Jiangsu 3,580-3,630, Dongguan 3,600-3,610, Guangxi 3,600-3,610). Demand for soybean meal shrinks as large feed companies start to modify their feed formula by increasing rapeseed meal ratio, in face of the continuous rises of soybean meal and the enlarged price spread between it and rapeseed meal. Moreover, mid-and downstream distributors have gained a lot from surges during the National Day. And on the news of a meeting between US and China president in late November, meals on DCE stay stagnant and fall back, which intensifies sellers’ decision to clear their stock for current profits; thus, soybean meal is forced to stop rising and adjust on callbacks. However, there is no sign for a thaw in the trade war in the near term under the large divergences between China and US. Under such circumstance, worries on forward soybean supply will hover on, and oil mills are keen on supporting the price on seeing the bottom of soybean meal spots. Therefore, soybean meal will see no slump at present. And it will go upside from the overall volatility before trade tensions ease, but will suffer frequent fluctuations on the restart of trade talks, so buyers can just wait at the sideline or take the hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal fluctuate in a steady state today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,680-2,740 yuan/tonne, fluctuating by 20 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi offers 2,680, stable; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,720, down 20; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 1901+150 upon basis). On one hand, rapeseed meal supply gets relatively tight now as its stock has tumbled to 1,000 tonnes by 88% last week. On the other hand, taking the advantage of forward soybean supply gap amid trade war, oil mills are active in lifting soybean meal prices, which in turn expands the spread to 900 yuan/tonne between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For this, rapeseed meal ratio is increased in feed formula. Overall, rapeseed meal price will go upside in fluctuation before trade conflicts thaw. But as the foreign media reported US and China presidents might meet during the G20 Summit in late November, oils on DCE suffered strong fluctuations. So buyers can take the hand-to-mouth tacit.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with common shipment at port generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is priced at 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 52,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 51,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. In spite of the flat trade under decreasing demand, fishmeal market is still propped up by the pressure of RMB devaluation, so the market is predicted to go steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal remains stable in price, which can be attributed to its tight supply under increasing demand boosted by its widened price spread with soybean meal and to the ongoing trade tensions. But meals on DCE falls back today. And due to the fall of soybean meal spots by 10-20 amid the flat demand from poultry and aquaculture, cottonseed meal is hard to surge at present. Overall, it will go upside in fluctuation before trade tensions ease, but may suffer short volatility after new cottonseed floods into market.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
