Unit: 0’000 tonne

      This week soybean oil stock moves to a fresh record of 1.8 Mln tonnes due to its large output under huge crush margins in oil mills. As of 12th Oct, the business inventory of domestic soybean oil amounts to 1,814,300 tonnes, up 77,100 tonnes by 4.44% from 1,737,200 tonnes last week, up 226,800 tonnes by 14.29% from 1,587,500 tonnes during the same period last month, and up 257,300 tonnes by 16.53% from 1,557,000 tonnes during the same period last year. Stock of the same period in the recent five years averages at 1,384,460 tonnes.

      Operation rate basically remains unchanged this week, as most soybean refineries have not restored their production just after the National Day. Soybean crush volume in domestic refineries totals 1,748,600 tonnes (soybean meal 1,381,394 tonnes and soybean oil 332,232 tonnes), up 8,700 tonnes by 0.15% from 1,739,900 last week. The operation rate (capability utilization) is 49.75% this week, up by 0.06% from 49.69% last week. But due to an extremely high operation rate forecast in the next two weeks, the crush volume will jump to 1.90 Mln tonnes next week (Week 42) and to 1.95 Mln tonnes in Week 43. So the total stock of soybean oil is predicted to stay at a historical high in the next two weeks.

      In the next few months, soybean import will be subjected to the trade war, during which import volume will be 7 Mln tonnes in November, 6.5 Mln tonnes in December, and less in January 2019. Currently, the arrival is only around 5.6 Mln tonnes. November will see less and less arrivals of soybean, which may severely affects operation rate; under such circumstances, soybean oil stock will welcome some falls in November.

      Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years