Today ( Oct. 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean was boosted to surge last night by the unfavorable harvesting weather and a USDA’s report that there were two ships loaded with soybean heading for China. Domestically, subject to the news of a possible meeting between the US and China presidents and of Chinese government’s policy to propel low protein ration, meals on DCE are weak in running higher and post narrow volatility. Besides, soybean meal spot prices also fluctuate ups and downs and trade flat. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,570-3,620 yuan/tonne, fluctuating steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,600, Shandong 3,570-3,590, Jiangsu 3,580-3,620, Dongguan 3,600-3,610, Guangxi 3,610-3,620). And the soybean meal price will turn negative further as hog farmers are reluctant to replenish under the contagious African swine fever and some large feed mills start to modify their formula in face of large price spread between soybean meal and mixed meals. Merely, there is no sign of a thaw in trade tensions in the short run, under which soybean stock has declined by 4% last week and its supply will tighten later. Meanwhile, soybean meal stock in coastal area has shrunk to 890,000 tonnes by 5% last week under smooth transaction. Given this, oil mills have strong will in supporting the price, so soybean meal spots will have little room for callbacks and will go upside out of fluctuations amid the trade spat. As futures are still sinking in volatility, buyers can just buy upon demand and make tentative replenishment in small batches on the dip if out of stock.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal market edges up today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,700 to 2,760 yuan/tonne by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi 2,700, up 20; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan 2,730, up 10; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 2,740). On the supply side, rapeseed meal is in short supply, in addition, soybean supply will get tight from December to February amid the trade war. In terms of price, soybean meal price remains high, which enlarges its spread with rapeseed meal; thus rapeseed meal ratio in feed is increased. By this token, oil mills are positive toward later market and stay firm in lifting the price; therefore, rapeseed meal may not decline and may keep upward from overall fluctuation amid the trade conflicts. However, due to the rampant ASF and the news of a meeting between US and China presidents, meal futures step down in afternoon market, which means there might be large risks of short term fluctuations. So buyers can just wait and replenish at low upon callbacks.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal price goes down slightly in a stable state and can be traded with price negotiations, with modest shipment at port generally. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 100-200 from yesterday; and 11,700-11,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 100-200 from yesterday. Southern ports: price is 10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 200 from yesterday; and 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 200 from yesterday. Stocks at port: Huangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 51,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market see steady declines: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne, down 30 against yesterday. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime fishmeal with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Facing a loose foreign market and declining demand for fishmeal, holders are burdened with pressure in selling, so fishmeal market may go weak steadily in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: US soybean surged last night due to the unfavorable harvesting weather and its strong demand, but meals on DCE today shake to tumble. Cottonseed meal market today remains stable, which can be contributed to a steady rise of soybean meal by 20 yuan/tonne, the ongoing trade conflicts and its own tight supply facing the demand expansion brought by a widened spread with soybean meal. But there is little space for the price to soar under poor aquaculture demand. Traders shall be cautious for short callbacks of cottonseed meal as soybean meal price has dragged down by the news that the US and China presidents may meet in late November.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
