Today ( Oct. 18th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged up last night. Domestically, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) gain after a higher open today, which is contributed to the escalating trade tensions as US President Donald Trump said that China is not ready yet to discuss trade problems. And soybean meal spots go up and trade flat, with the price in coastal areas ranging from 3,570 to 3,650 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,590, Shandong 3,570-3,620, Jiangsu 3,600-3,630, Dongguan 3,640-3,650, Guangxi 3,630-3,650). Due to the one-week maintenance in local power plants, some oil mills in Rizhao have set bounds to shipment, causing severe unloading delays outside their gates. Given this, soybean meal spots follow futures to rally, and the market will swing to trend up during the trade war. However, while its end demand is now subject to the contagious ASF, the bullish market may grow stronger due to a possible meeting between China and the US heads late next month; hence, the short-term market may fluctuate frequently, and buyers should control the pace of purchase and sale, and not force up prices excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices go up steadily today, among which the quotation in coastal area is 2,670-2,730 yuan/tonne, up 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean 2,700, stable; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan 2,730, up 10; Zhangzhou Chintex 2,730). Rapeseed meal is in tight supply as its demand is expanded by its widened price spread with soybean meal. Besides, soybean supply may get scarcer from December to January as there is little chance to end the trade war briefly. So rapeseed meal market will swing to go upside. But any rumor on trade talk will probably lead to strong fluctuations in the rapeseed meal market at any time, so buyers are suggested not to chase prices higher, but to replenish properly at lows upon callbacks.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with flat shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,700-11,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 54,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Holders are under pressure as stock at port is on the rise amid slack demand, so the short-term market of fishmeal may go weak steadily.
Cottonseed meal: Concerns over trade war heighten after US President said that China is not ready yet to discuss trade problems. Today soybean meal gains 20-50 yuan/tonne, which further enlarges its price spread with cottonseed meal so that the latter hugs an increasing demand. Facing this in its tight supply, cottonseed meal stops falling to keep stabilized. But its market still gets restricted by the dismal demand as the ASF is slashing hog breeding. Overall, it will trend up amid the trade war, but may fluctuate with the increasing amount of new cottonseed meal on the market.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
