Today ( Oct. 18th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Today domestic corn prices gain in overall stability. The procurement price in Shandong further processing companies prevails at 1,840-1,970 yuan/tonne, some gaining 10-20 from yesterday. In Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2017 dried corn is quoted higher by 10 yuan/tonne at 1,770 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L), and 2018 new corn remains steadily at 1,450-1,460 for 30% moisture, and goes up 5-10 yuan/tonne to 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne for 15% moisture (volume weight over 700 g/L). In Bayuquan port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn is quoted higher by 10 yuan/tonne at 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne and old corn is stable at 1,740-1,750 yuan/tonne. In Shekou port, Guandong, second-class old corn is quoted steadily at 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne. Currently, bullish sentiment is still strong. On one hand, farmers and traders are reluctant to sell out to support the price. On the other, China Grain Reserves Corporation has gradually started its procurement, which further boosts the market. Meanwhile, some processing enterprises in Shandong continue to raise procurement price to increase volume on the market, and corn price keeps going up at Southern and Northern ports. Therefore, corn market is predicted to go strong steadily in the short run. However, corn in Northeast is just in harvest, so there may be intensive sales with new corn multiplied with the continuous ex-warehouse of the old corn. Moreover, corn feed consumption is gradually slashed by the worsening African swine fever as hog farmers rush to sell out their pig rather than replenish. Hence, buyers should keep a good watch for periodic pullbacks under the pressure of new corn sales. And later focus shall be on weather in main planted area, new corn harvests and sales, as well as downstream demands.
Sorghum: Imported sorghum price keeps stable today (US sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100, 2,130-2,150 and 2,060 yuan/tonnes in Nantong, Shanghai and Guangdong respectively. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum and dried sorghum unchanged at 2,220 and 2,330 yuan/tonne respectively in Tianjin, and at 2,250 and 2,350 yuan/tonne separately in Qingdao, and raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne in Shanghai. Domestic sorghum price also stays steady: raw sorghum at 1,700 and dried sorghum with freight at 1,800 in Hinggan League, Inner Mongolia, and respectively at 1,800 and 2,080 yuan/tonne (of higher quality) in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, and respectively at 1,700 and 1,760 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang).
Barley: Today, price for barley at port remains stable (Australian barley: unchanged at 2,060 yuan/tonne in Shandong and 2,080-2,090 in Nantong; French barley: unchanged at 1,970-1,980 and 1,880-1,890 in Nantong and Guangdong respectively; Ukrainian barley: unchanged at 1,870 yuan/tonne in Guangdong).
As farmers and traders are reluctant to sell out corn on account of output reduction in some areas and increasing cost of planting, participants are waiting for a bullish market. In addition, corn price at Southern ports is brought higher slightly by the rising shipping freight in coastal areas. So grains at port may get support from such bullish sentiment. On the other hand, importers tend to hold back at the thought of high-cost US sorghum due to the uncertainties in the trade spat, while the import cost of Australian sorghum is also raised substantially by the droughts. In this context, sorghum import volume continues shrinking at ports, of which stock at Guangdong port has dwindled to a low level of 38,000 tonnes. On worries of the difficulty to replenish such low-cost supply, importers tend to hoard their stocks to support prices. Merely, due to the continuing outbreaks of ASF nationwide, hog breeding is severely crippled with farmers busy in damping rather than replenishing, so feed consumption is reducing. And such bearish mood is exerting pressure on grains at port, thus slowing down grain shipment. In the co-existence of the bull and the bear, grain prices at port keep stable today, and may remain such a trend in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
