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Daily Review on Meal Market in China

2018-10-19 www.cofeed.com
      Today ( Oct. 19th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

      Soybean meal: US soybean closed with steep losses last night due to the clear weather in planted states. Today meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) open lower, followed by domestic soybean meal spots to step down, among which Yihai factories mostly lose 40-50 and trade low in morning market. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,550 to 3,600 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday. (Tianjin 3,550, Shandong 3,550-3,600, Jiangsu 3,560-3,600, Dongguan 3,600-3,610, Guangxi 3,600-3,610). Currently, soybean meal market is burdened with pressure. For one thing, some large feed enterprises have started to adjust their formula due to the large price spread between soybean meal and mixed meal; and the African swine fever continues to spread nationwide. For another, there will be a meeting between the US and China heads late next month. However, oil mills in Rizhao shut down for one week due to the maintenance in local power plants, and some oil mills in East China are also off for production restriction, causing severe unloading delays outside their gates. Besides, there is slim hope to end the trade war briefly, so soybean meal is still trending up in fluctuation. Buyers with inadequate stock can replenish properly on the dips after the market falls steadily.

      Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal market edges down steadily today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,650 to 2,720 yuan/tonne, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean 2,680, down 20; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan 2,730, stable; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 2,720, down 10). Currently, rapeseed meal market is under pressure. For one thing, the ongoing ASF is crippling the hog replenishment; for the other, meals on DCE keep falling due to a possible meeting between the US and China heads in late November, and soybean meal spots are also forced to step down. However, demand for rapeseed meal is expanded by its large spread with soybean meal so that it is now in short supply. Besides, soybean supply may get tighter from December to February. Therefore, the overall market will go upward in fluctuation amid the trade war. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips after the price falls steady.

      Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, yet shipping flat at port. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,700-11,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 54,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. In view of the slack demand for fishmeal and the stress from RMB devaluation, holder are now waiting on the sidelines. So fishmeal market may run steadily in the near run. 

      Cottonseed meal: While soybean meal market is supported by the high import cost of soybean amid the ongoing trade spat, cottonseed meal market also runs steadily for its tight supply, especially when its demand is now increased by its large price spread with soybean meal; hence, the cottonseed meal market may swing to go upside amid the trade tension. However, after the US soybean slump last night, meals on DCE today edge down after a lower open, with soybean meal spots to lose 10-20 yuan/tonne. This trend, coupled by the broadly poor demand under the ASF, is unfavorable to the cottonseed market. And with the increased quantity of new cottonseed, the overall market may be thrown into volatility. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.94)