I．National stocks
Cofeed News: This week (as of 19th Oct), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 435,600 tonnes, down 12,700 tonnes by 2.8% from 448,300 tonnes last week, and down 39,200 tonnes by 8.2% from 474,800 tonnes of the same period last month, and down 22,100 tonnes by 4.8% from 457,700 tonnes of the same period last year. Besides, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 99,300 tonnes, up 4,100 tonnes by 4.3% from 95,200 tonnes last week.
Due to the continuous shipping delays, the arrival volume at ports is lower than anticipated, so domestic palm oil stock declines for the fourth consecutive week. But the arrival of palm oil will increase later, of which 24-degree palm oil is forecast to reach 330,000-350,000 tonnes in October and 350,000-370,000 tonnes in November. Meanwhile, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continues to narrow, with a range of 168 yuan/tonne from 1,038 yuan/tonnes to 870 yuan/tonnes now. In addition, palm oil blending amount may be severely affected as weather cools down. Therefore, later stock of palm oil may climb at a relatively slow pace.
Fig.: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to Cofeed, import volume in September is about 420,000-430,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), basically unchanged from the discreet value given last week, and 450,000-480,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 330,000-350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes) in October, down 20,000 tonnes from the forecast given last week. And the import value is projected at 470,000-490,000 tonnes in November (24-degree palm oil 350,000-370,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), holding the estimate given last week, and it will be about 540,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 420,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) in December. (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated on the basis of latest shipment and violation in shipment).
