Unit: 0’000 tonne

      This week soybean oil stock moves to a fresh record again due to its large output under huge crush margins in oil mills. As of 19th Oct, the business inventory of domestic soybean oil amounts to 1,850,300 tonnes, up 36,000 tonnes by 1.98% from 1,814,300 tonnes last week, up 196,400 tonnes by 11.87% from 1,653,900 tonnes of the same point last month, and up 250,500 tonnes by 15.66% from 1,599,800 tonnes during the same period last year. And the mean of the same period in recent five years is 1,392,810 tonnes. This week (Oct.13th-19th), most soybean refineries have restarted their production. Soybean crush volume in domestic refineries totals 1,968,500 tonnes (soybean meal 1,555,115 tonnes and soybean oil 374,015 tonnes), up 219,900 tonnes by 12.57% from 1,748,600 last week. The operation rate (capability utilization) is 56.20% this week, up by 6.28% from 49.92% last week. Operation rate is predicted to stay at a normal high level in the next two weeks, so the crush volume will jump to 1.95 Mln tonnes next week (Week 43) and to 1.97 Mln tonnes in Week 44.The total stock of soybean oil is predicted to increase further in the next two weeks.

      Merely, the US-China trade war has exercised a great influence on soybean import. With some US soybean ships being canceled, import volume is predicted to decline to 6.5 Mln tonnes in November, 6.2 Mln tonnes in December, and 5 Mln in January 2019. November will see less and less arrivals of soybean, which may severely affects operation rate; if so, soybean oil stock will see inflection points in November.

      Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years