Soybean: While some mills in Rizhao and East China have halted their production, imported soybeans still keep arriving at ports. According to Cofeed, in Week 42 (Oct. 13th-19th), the actual volume of imported soybean at domestic ports is 1.837 Mln tonnes boarded 29 ships, so soybean stock in oil mills increases slightly. As of October 19th, imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas amounts to 7,078,400 tonnes, up 45,500 tonnes by 0.64% from 7,032,900 tonnes last week, and up substantially by 66.22% compared to 4,258,200 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The volume of imported soybean reduces sharply in the fourth quarter, when soybean may be gradually dragged down in stock and will enter de-stocking phase. Moreover, if trade conflicts keep going on, soybean supply will get relatively tight in December to February 2019. 

      

      Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

      Soybean meal: Soybean meal was traded well last week, with a trading volume of 914,060 tonnes (of which spot contracts totaled 469,360 tonnes and forward contracts upon basis totaled 444,700 tonnes). Besides, many refineries in Rizhao and East China have halted production, so local soybean meal stock has reduced significantly. Therefore, soybean meal continues to decline this week. Until this week (as of Oct 19th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal refineries totals 770,200 tonnes, down 122,900 tonnes by 13.76% from 893,100 tonnes last week, yet up by 5.85% from 727,600 tonnes during the same period last year. The crush volume will still stay at a high level of 1.9 Mln tonnes next week, and oil mills may slow down their speed in purchasing soybean meal after replenishment for the last two weeks; hence, soybean meal stock is predicted to decline at a slower pace, and even go up slightly this week..

      

      Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years