Today ( Oct. 24th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged down last night, but meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rebound slightly today. And domestic soybean meal spots see gains steadily and trade higher at lows. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,490 to 3,610 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday (Tianjin 3,510, Shandong 3,490-3,560, Jiangsu 3,550-3,560, Dongguan 3,600-3,610, Guangxi 3,580-3,600). Imported soybean will be around 1.77 Mln tonnes from November to January, far lower than last year’s 2.67 Mln tonnes of the same period. Besides, some large refineries, scant of soybean, have carried out production restriction plan, and refineries are still supporting the price for bullish market of soybean meal. Under such circumstance, soybean meal has limited room for declines, and even snaps its loss to rebound slightly today. However, hog farmers become unwilling to replenish as African swine fever has spread from North China to the South. Meanwhile, China has officially allowed rapeseed meal imports from India for its cheap price, which is about 1,880 yuan/tonne with duty paid, and Chinese importers are also scooping up Ukrainian sunflower meal. And the end demand of soybean meal is also dragged down by its enlarged price spread with mixed meals. Therefore, soybean meal posts slow growing pace recently, and may follow futures market to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Market participants need to keep an eye on whether the trade conflicts will be settled after the meeting in late November. If settled, soybean meal price will slump; if not, soybean meal may post another strong growth momentum amid the soybean supply tensions in December. So buyers can replenish to keep a safety stock, rather than force up the price.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal basically stay stable today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,620-2,710 yuan/tonne (Fangchenggang Great Ocean 2,620 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan 2,680 yuan/tonne, stable; Zhangzhou Chintex 2,680, stable). Soybean meal is of high price as soybean supply will get tight from December to February amid trade war, which increases rapeseed meal ratio in animal feed due to the enlarged price spread, so oil mills are active in supporting prices as rapeseed meal is of tight supply. But there are pieces of news bearish to rapeseed meal market: China has allowed rapeseed meal imports from India (Duty paid: 1,880 yuan/tonne); the US and China heads will meet for settling trade conflicts late next month. So rapeseed meal market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the overall market will maintain upward trend despite fluctuations amid the trade spat.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with flat shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,600-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at ports: Huangpu 56,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 40,000 tonnes, Shanghai 55,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. The wait-and-see sentiment now prevails as market participants are waiting for the publication of quotas in the new fishing season by Peruvian government, so the overall market will present a stable status in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Meal market is put into a bearish stance as African swine fever has spread from north to south in China. Cottonseed meal steps down by 30-50 yuan/tonne partially, but soybean meal rebounds by 10-20 yuan/tonne today. Forward soybean supply gets tight as the trade spat is yet to finish, so soybean meal is of high price. As a result, cottonseed meal, as a substitute, enjoys a growing demand amid its own tight supply. Therefore, cottonseed meal market will mostly trend up in fluctuation before trade conflicts end, but may swing to adjust with the increased volume of new cottonseed meal. And buyers can just take the hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
