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Daily Review on Meal Market in China

2018-10-26 www.cofeed.com
      Today ( Oct. 26th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
 
  Soybean meal: Meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) step down on the back of overnight declines of US soybean. Spot prices of domestic soybean meal stay stable to fall and still trade flat. The price in coastal areas is mainly at 3,490-3,600, steadily down by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 3,510; Shandong 3,490-3,550; Jiangsu 3,540-3,560, Dongguan 3,600 and Guangxi 3,600). Demand for soybean meal has been cut by the contagious African swine fever and its higher price than mixed meals, and its export will sharply drop for the elimination of export rebate. In addition, both Indian rapeseed meal and Ukrainian sunflower meal are flooding into domestic market. In this context, soybean meal price is forced to adjust upon callbacks. But soybean import will be less in the next three months due to trade frictions, so oil mills are bullish about later market and active in supporting prices; hence, soybean meal will have little room for declines and may follow futures to fluctuate narrowly in the near term. But it will keep an upward trend amid the trade war, and buyers can just wait for steady falls and make moderate replenishment.  
 
  Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal remains basically stable today, among which it is 2,630-2,680 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, steadily fluctuating by 10-30 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,260 yuan/tonnes, stable; Guangdong 2,680, stable; Zhangzhou Chinetex, Fujian 2,680, stable). Currently, rapeseed meal is in relatively tight supply. In addition, its ratio in feed has been raised due to its lower price than soybean meal, whose price keeps edging up as the ongoing trade spat has dented soybean supply for December to February. Hence, oil mills are bullish about later market. But rapeseed meal is dragged down by frequent outbreaks of African swine fever, as well as the meeting between China and the US presidents. In general, rapeseed meal market will fluctuate narrowly in the short run, but will still go upside amid the trade war. Buyers are suggested to wait and replenish properly on the dips upon callbacks.  
 
  Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,600-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 56,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 10,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. The wait-and-see sentiment now prevails on the market as participants keep a watchful eye on further news from Peru, so the quotation for fishmeal stays basically stable.
 
  Cottonseed meal: Today soybean meal spot price remains steadily to down 10-20 yuan/tonne, coupled by contagious African swine fever, so cottonseed meal drops by 30-100 yuan/tonne partially amid its low trading volume. But the overall price of soybean meal remains high amid the ongoing trade war, so that cottonseed meal enjoys an increasing demand just at its tight supply. Cottonseed meal is predicted to keep trending up in this context, but it may fall back to adjust with the increase of new cottonseed meal on the market. Buyers can just take the hand-to-mouth purchasing.  
 
(USD $1=CNY 6.95)