Today ( Oct. 26th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Today domestic corn prices stay stable to rise. The procurement price among Shandong further processing companies prevails at 1,900-2,010 yuan/tonne, mostly stable and some adjusting slightly. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, the prevailing purchasing price for 2017 dried corn remains unchanged at 1,790 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L), and 2018 new corn is priced higher by 40 yuan/tonne at 1,4520 for 30% moisture, and higher by 10 yuan/tonne to 1,740-1,760 yuan/tonne (Volume weight 700 g/L) for 15% moisture. At Bayuquan port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn rises by 20 yuan/tonne at highs to 1,790-1,840 yuan/tonne and old corn is stable at 1,740-1,760 yuan/tonne. At Shekou port, Guandong, second-class old corn is quoted higher by 20 yuan/tonne to 1,950-1,960 yuan/tonne.
The delay of Northeast new corn on the market, together with further enlarged gaps in annual demand & supply, creates bullish sentiment about later market. A periodically tight supply & demand pattern, where farmers and traders are quite reluctant to sell while processing enterprises in North China own small inventories, boosts corn price to rise constantly. Meanwhile, a final buying spree appears on the auction this week (The auction notice for next week is not issued yet), on which both the trading volume and bidding price get higher substantially, so market confidence is further enhanced. And corn price at both Southern and Northern ports is lifted again by 10-30 yuan/tonne. However, intensive sales may occur due to the current high price on Northern market. Besides, hog farmers become somewhat slack in replenishment as African swine fever gets more and more violent. Overall, short-term corn market may keep going strong, and later focus will be on weather in main planted areas and sale progress of corn on distribution markets.
Sorghum: Imported sorghum price keeps stable today (US sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 and 2,130-2,150 yuan/tonnes in Nantong and Shanghai respectively. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain steadily at 2,210 and 2,320 yuan/tonne respectively in Tianjin, at 2,250 and 2,350 yuan/tonne separately in Qingdao and raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,320 yuan/tonne in Shanghai. Domestic new sorghum price also stays steady: raw sorghum at 1,700-1,740 and dried sorghum with freight at 1,800-1,840 in Hinggan League, Inner Mongolia, respectively at 1,700 and 1,760 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, respectively at 1,900 and 2,000 yuan/tonne in Daqing, Heilongjiang, and respectively at 2,100 and 2,200 in Changchun, Jilin).
Barley: Price for barley at port stays stable today (Australian barley: 2,100 yuan/tonne in Shandong, unchanged; 2,150 in Nantong, unchanged. French barley: 1,970-1,980 in Nantong, unchanged).
Import cost for US sorghum stays high after the US-China trade war took place, so importers tend to wait and have no appetite for US sorghum. In addition, cost for Australian sorghum is also significantly elevated by drought conditions. On this background, import volume of sorghum continues to slip, to only 32,000 tonnes at Guangdong port. So importers are willing to hoard their stock to support prices on worries of the difficulty to replenish such low-cost sorghum. On the other hand, corn price at port keeps rising, which is bullish to the overall grain market. Merely, as the energy feed substitute of corn, sorghum and barley post no price advantage against corn, while the weak demand for corn is cracking down on the shipment of grains at ports. In the co-existence of the bull and the bear, grain prices remain stable at port, and will just have slight volatility in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.95)
