Soybean and Soybean Meal Stocks and Amounts in Contracts Weekly (Week 43, 2018)

2018-10-30 www.cofeed.com

Soybean: Soybean weekly crush volume has moved to an all-time high of 2,015,400 tonnes under the uprising operation rate last week, but its stock continues to drop this week due to its few arrivals to port. Until Week 43 (as of Oct 26th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 6,890,000 tonnes, down 188,400 tonnes by 2.66% from 7,078,400 tonnes last week, yet up by 68.29% from 4,093,900 tonnes of the same period last week. The volume to port is still small for November to January, so soybean stock may decline gradually later. And if trade disputes fail to ease, soybean supply will get tight in December to February.

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Amid the high operation rate, soybean meal traded lower last week, with a volume of 547,370 tonnes (of which spot contracts totaled 446,570 tonnes and forward contracts upon basis totaled 100,800 tonnes), so its stock increases slightly this week. Until Week 43 (as of Oct 26th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal refineries totals 893,600 tonnes, up 123,400 tonnes by 16.02% from 770,200 tonnes last week, and up by 34.55% from 664,100 tonnes of the same period last year. The crush volume will drop slightly next week, but will still stay at a high level of 1,870,000 tonnes, so soybean meal stock may keep increasing next week.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Contracts: This week, outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills continue to reduce. As of October 26th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 4,512,400 tonnes unfinished, down 570,400 tonnes by 11.22% from 5,082,800 tonnes last week, yet down by 6.44% from 4,239,000 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years

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