Due to the continuous shipping delays, the arrival volume at ports is lower than anticipated, so domestic palm oil stock declines for a fifth consecutive week. But with the increased ship arrivals later, the import volume of 24-degree palm oil is forecast to be 350,000-370,000 tonnes in November and 400,000 tonnes in December. However, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil keeps narrowing, to 868 yuan/tonnes as of this Friday, down 22 yuan/tonne from 890 yuan/tonne last week and down 170 yuan/tonnes from the highest level of 1,038 yuan/tonne in earlier stage. Besides, oil futures slump on both global and domestic markets this week, which influences buyers’ sentiment. And blending volume of palm oil is reducing as the weather cools down. So the trading volume of palm oil is only 19 Mln tonnes this week, as compared to 46 Mln tonnes last week. Importers are still acquiring vessels of palm oil amid the slack season, so palm oil stock is forecast to increase later, but at a relatively slow space, and it may be longer-than-expected to rebuild the stock due to the shipping delays.
Fig.: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to Cofeed, import volume in October is about 450,000-480,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 330,000-350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), and 470,000-490,000 tonnes in November (24-degree palm oil 350,000-370,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), basically unchanged from the discreet value given last week, and it will be about 540,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 420,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) in December, down 20,000 tonnes from that given last week. (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated on the basis of latest shipment and violation in shipment).
