Today ( Oct. 30th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn price stays stable to go strong today. The price offered by Shandong processing enterprises is 1,920-2,040, mostly unchanged and some down by 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2017 dried corn is 1,820 yuan/tonne (volume wight 700 g/L), up 30 yuan/tonne from yesterday; and 2018 new corn with moisture 30% is 1,540 yuan/tonne , up 20 yuan/tonne, and moisture 15% is 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne (volume weight over 700 g/L), unchanged from yesterday. At Bayuquan port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn is 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday, and old corn is 1,740-1,780 yuan/tonne, with those at highs up 10 yuan/tonne. At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class corn is 1,950-1,970 yuan/tonne, holding the line of yesterday.
In view of the strong bullish sentiment, output cut forecast and increased planting cost, farmers and traders tend to hoard their stock. Meanwhile, collection and storage companies are providing high purchasing price, so that market sentiment is boosted. And corn purchasing price keeps firm at highs as processing companies owns relatively low inventories. However, processing margins are squeezed by high costs as purchasing price has gradually topped 2 yuan/kg in Shandong, so some companies try to lower down the price slightly in recent two days. And Northeastern corn will go into market intensively in mid-to-late November. Under the seasonal pressure, corn price may suffer callback risks. In addition, African swine fever still remains as an uncertainty. In general, corn periodical supply may still remain tight in the short term, so the price may continue to go strong. Later focus shall be still on weather conditions and new corn sales in planting areas.
Sorghum: Sorghum price stays stable today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100, 2,130-2,150 and 2,040-2,050 yuan/tonne in Nantong, Shanghai and Guangdong, respectively; Australian sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,200, 2,300 and 2,320 yuan/tonne separately in Tianjin, Qingdao and Shanghai, and dried sorghum is unchanged at 2,300 and 2,350 in Tianjin and Qingdao, respectively; Domestic sorghum keeps steady: raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,760-1,780 and 1,800-1,840 yuan/tonnes respectively in Hinggan League, Inner Mongolia and at 1,700 and 1,740-1,760 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, and dried sorghum with freight is 2,200 yuan/tonne in Changchuan, Jilin).
Barley: Barley price stays stable to rise today. (Australian barley: Shandong 2,100, unchanged; Nantong 2,150, unchanged; Guangdong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; French barley: Nantong 1,970-1,980 yuan/tonne, unchanged; Guangdong 1,980, unchanged; Ukrainian barley: Gaungdong 1,870 yuan/tonne, unchanged).
Import cost of US sorghum has risen to high levels under the influence of trade frictions, so importers are unwilling to purchase. In addition, import cost of Australian sorghum has been dramatically lifted by drought conditions. In this context, import volume of sorghum has shrunk to low levels seen in recent years, and it has dwindled to 25,000 tonnes at Guangdong port, which usually owns the maximum import share, so holders are quite willing to support prices. Propped up by the above bullish factors, grain market runs stable to increase today. However, domestic sorghum is now at harvest and entering the market gradually, where supply is now a little relaxed and price is running at lows. By contrast, Australian sorghum has lost its price advantage against domestic sorghum, ans sorghum and barley have also lost their price advantage as energy feed substitutes of corn. Under such weak shipment, sorghum and barley present limited upside potentials, and are predicted to stay stable to fluctuate slightly. Later focus is still on new gain sales.
(USD $1=CNY 6.97)
