Today ( Oct. 23rd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged up last night, but meals on Dalian Exchange Commodity (DCE) extend losses today. And soybean meal spot prices also step down, attracting some deals at lows. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,490 to 3,560 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday. (Tianjin 3,510, Shandong 3,490-3,550, Jiangsu 3,540-3,560, Dongguan 3,600-3,610, Guangxi 3,580-3,600). Besides, import of Indian rapeseed meal is officially allowed by Beijing and some Chinese buyers are scooping up Ukrainian sunflower meal, while soybean meal end demand is cut by the African swine fever and its enlarged price spread with mixed meals. Therefore, soybean meal is forced to fall back. However, worried about forward supply shortage, downstream companies become quite willing to replenish on the dips, creating an active trading status quo after holidays; hence, soybean meal stock in coastal area has dwindled to 770,000 tonnes by 14%. And with less arrival of soybean later, import soybean at port will enter the liquidation of inventory. Under such circumstances, oil mills are still positive about later market, so soybean meal price will have little room for callbacks and may extend its rises despite fluctuations before trade conflicts are settled. If soybean meal can manage to narrow its losses and even snap the loss to rebound on afternoon market, buyers with insufficient inventories can make appropriate replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal step down today, of which it is 2,620-2,680 yuan/tonnes in coastal areas, down 20-40 yuan/tonne (Fangchenggang Great Ocean 2,630, down 30; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan 2,680, down 20; Zhangzhou Chintex 2,660, down 40). The ban for Indian rapeseed import lasted for years is officially lifted by Beijing, for most Indian rapeseed meal are just like domestic pressed cake and just about 1,800 yuan/tonnes. Besides, hog replenishment is subject to African swine fever, which has broken out frequently in recent two days to 46 cases so far. In addition, there are pieces of news that there might be a meeting between China and the US heads late next month. Exposed to all the aforementioned factors, rapeseed meal price extends its callbacks and adjustments. But rapeseed meal is in tight supply, while its demand increases due to its enlarged price spread with soybean meal. Meanwhile, soybean arriving at port will be less than 18 Mln tonnes in November to January, far lower than last year’s 26.7 Mln tonnes. So rapeseed meal market will keep trending up despite fluctuations at its bottom amid the trade spat, and buyers can just wait and make proper replenishment on the dips after steady falls.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal price goes down slightly in a stable state and can be traded with price negotiations, with modest shipment at port generally. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,600-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down by 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Southern ports: price is 10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 40,000 tonnes, Shanghai 54,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market goes rough amid the low season, but holders are still waiting for new information in new fishing season from Peru, so the overall market may go weak steadily in the near run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal steps down another 20 yuan/tonne partially amid the loss of soybean meal spots by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and its dismal demand from hog breeding amid the rampant ASF. But soybean meal is of high price as there is little chance for the trade war to end in near term, so cottonseed meal enjoys an increasing demand as a substitute amid its tight supply, making its price hard to slump. Overall, it may keep trending up from fluctuations amid trade conflicts, but may swing to adjust due to the increased volume of new cottonseed meal. By the way, buyers can just take the hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
