Today ( Oct. 31st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fall another day, yet at a slower pace. And spot price of soybean meal stays stable to down, trading better at lows. The price is 3,440-3,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, steadily down by 10-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday. (Tianjin 3,440, Shandong 3,440-3,500, Jiangsu 3,450-3,470, Dongguan 3,500-3,520, Gunagxi 3,540-3,560). On one hand, soybean meal market gets curbed by new standards of lowering down protein content and the news of some 6 Mln tonnes of soybean sale to targeting markets. On the other, Brazilian soybean is planted at an unprecedented pace so that the first cargo can be loaded in late December, in addition that some 3 Mln tonnes can be loaded in January 2019. In consideration of a smaller-than-forecast supply gap, oil mills become less confident in supporting the price , so soybean meal is forced to post callbacks today. However, participants will still hold expectations of later market amid the trade war, so the overall market will have limited decline potential. And the upcoming meeting will definitely dominate the entire market. If the market can narrow declines or even rebound in afternoon session, then buyers with inadequate inventories can try to buy in batches, and do keep good control of the positions as there are still uncertainties amid the trade war.
Imported rapeseed meal: The overall market falls sharply today, where it is 2,580-2,650 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,600, down 30; Guangdong 2,620, down 10; Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian 2,650, stable). Rapeseed meal market is dragged down to extend its falls in short term as several factors have conspired to disrupt oil mills’ confidence in supporting the price. First, Chinese government has released new standards to lower down protein content in animal feed. Second, importers are scooping up Ukrainian sunflower meal, Canadian canola meal and Indian rapeseed meal. Third, SRB will sell some 6 Mln tonnes of soybean to targeting markets like crushing plants, which means later soybean supply gap will be smaller than anticipated. Finally, the US and China presidents will meet late next month. However, rapeseed meal is now in tight supply, especially after its demand has been enlarged by its wider spread with soybean meal, so the decline for spots is obviously smaller than futures. In general, rapeseed meal market will fluctuate to consolidate in the near run, but later market will be guided by the trade war. If upcoming talks between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump can end the trade war, meal market will slump, but if not, it will soar again. Buyers can just wait to replenish on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Price for fishmeal falls down today, with limited negotiating space and flat shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, each down by 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Southern ports: price is 10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, down by 100 yuan/tonne; 11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down by 200 yuan/tonne; and 11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down by 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Stocks at port: Huangpu 59,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 59,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Holders turn loose slightly in face of the growing inventories amid the slack season, but import cost has been lifted by constant RMB devaluation; hence, fishmeal market will probably remain steady to go weak in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Soybean meal continues to fall steadily by 10-40 yuan/tonne, as its consumption will decrease after Chinese government released standards to lower down protein content. And cottonseed meal also falls by 20-50 yuan/tonne partially due to its poor trading volume and rampant African swine fever. Besides, cottonseed meal market will extend to fall with a growing amount of new cottonseed meal on the market. But its supply is still relatively tight, especially after its demand has been increased due to its large price spread with soybean meal, so cottonseed meal will show more resilience than soybean meal.
(USD $1=CNY 6.97)
