Today (Oct. 25th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean is quoted steadily today, of which non-GM Canadian soybean is 4,180 yuan/tonne and Russian soybean is 3,650 yuan/tonne, both holding the line of yesterday. And GM imported soybean is not offered. Due to the ongoing US-China trade frictions, soybean import volume is forecast to be less than 18 Mln tonnes in November to January, far lower that of the same period last year. Worried about inadequate supply in later market, importers show strong willingness to support prices. Nevertheless, the price advantage of imported soybean turns invisible due to its narrowed spread with domestic soybean, so its shipment is blocked. Besides, its distributed markets have little potential for further rises due to abundant supply currently. Generally, facing the competition of trade war and market supply & demand, imported soybean distribution markets may largely remain stable despite fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed steps down partially by 0.01 yuan/kg today, due to its weak by-product markets and oil mills’ (some have stopped their purchase) reluctance to purchase high-priced cottonseed amid thin crush margins and increased amount of new cottonseed on the market. But the cottonseed market is still supported by the ongoing trade conflicts and small volume from Xinjiang under inconvenient transportation and expensive freight. And the short-term cottonseed market is predicted to fluctuate narrowly, so buyers can just buy on hand-to-mouth basis.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean continued its losses last night due to the improving weather conditions for harvests, today oils on DCE also extend to fall. And domestic spots of soybean oil and palm oil also step down and trade flat. Soybean oil stock has moved to a historical high of 1.85 MLn tonnes under the ultrahigh operation rate in domestic oil mills, while the demand has further turned pale as downstream companies choose to wait after the slumps on the market. Under such high pressure from fundamentals, plus continuous falls of international crude oil, oil market will still stay at callbacks in the short term. But trade war will cause tight soybean supply for December to February, in addition that packing oil stockpiles before Spring Festival will gradually start in December, so oil market will post a slow upward trend despite fluctuations at its bottom amid the trade spat. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines and make proper replenishment on the dips after steady falls.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is mainly quoted at 5,530-5,580 yuan/tonne, down by 30-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 5,540-5,550 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,530, Zhangjiagang 5,580 and Guangzhou 5,530-5,550).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,630-4,700 yuan/tonne, down by 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 4,690-4,700, down 40; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,700, down 20; Guangzhou 4,630-4,660, down 40; Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil prices continue to step down today, among which the quotation in coastal areas is 6,210-6,380 yuan/tonne, down 50-70 yuan/tonne. (Fujian not offered; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,380, down 30; Fangchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi 6,300, down 50). Biodiesel profits turn thin after the slump of crude oil. Besides, soybean oil stock has again moved to a historical high of 1.85 Mln tonnes and rapeseed oil stock also stays at a high level, which make an oversupply pattern come into being. In addition, there will be a meeting between China and the US presidents. Under such circumstances, domestic rapeseed oil market will extend its adjustments and callbacks. But imported soybean will have a much smaller volume than the previous year in the next three months, so the rapeseed oil market may maintain its upward trend amid the trade war. Buyers can just wait for steady falls and make appropriate replenishment on the dips.
Cottonseed oil: Soybean oil mills are supporting the price as forward soybean sees relatively small volume at ports amid the ongoing trade war. Besides, oil mills are unwilling to sell under tight supply and low price, so cottonseed oil still has little room to fall and remain stable today. But oils on DCE continue to fall today, followed by soybean oil spots to fall 30-50 yuan/tonne. In addition, cottonseed oil has a low end demand while new cottonseed oil are on the rise, so its market is still restricted. In general, the overall market may extend its narrow fluctuations in the short term, so buyers can just take the hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
