Today (Oct. 12th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Prices for imported soybean keep stable, where non-GM Canadian soybean is quoted at 4,050 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean is not offered. Brazilian soybean sales will have drawn to a close from October to February 2019, which will lessen soybean imports to China in the fourth quarter. According to a latest survey by Cofeed, the arrival of soybean is projected at 6.399 Mln tonnes boarded 102 ships heading China in October. And the preliminary estimate is 5.9 Mln tonnes for November, 5.5 Mln for December and only 3.8 Mln tonnes for January, 2019. Current arrival of soybean at port is about 3.8-4.0 Mln tonnes. Besides, concerned about forward supply shortage of soybean, importers are struggling to support price. In general, as forward soybean supply is disturbing the market when there is no sign of a thaw in the US-China trade disputes, distribution market of imported soybean may seek to go strong steadily despite fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed price has a slight gain of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg, which can be attributed to the ongoing trade conflicts, the small amount of new cottonseed on the market and small amount from Xinjiang in face of inconvenient transportation and rising freight. And its overall market is still curbed by thin crush margins in oil mills and oil mills’ unwillingness to purchase high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. In general, the short-term cottonseed market is predicted to trend up in fluctuation, and buyers can replenish on the dip.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean recovered to rebound last night after a bullish report by USDA. Today soybean oil on DCE shrinks losses, and palm oil rebounds modestly. And domestic soybean oil spots mostly stop falling and keep stable amid some falls, and palm oil spots go up and attract only some purchases at lows. In spite of the bearish fundamentals of oils with a historic high of 1.73 Mln tonnes of soybean oil stock, participants are still positive toward later market and create a good market at lows after the National Day amid their concerns over forward supply shortage of soybean under worsening trade tensions. So oil market will see few risks to have callbacks during the trade war, and will gradually go up in oscillation. And the oscillation will be triggered easily by rumors about trade war in the near term, especially after the foreign media’s report that US and China presidents might seek to meet over the G20 summit. And buyers shall watch out in trading, replenish for a safety stock on the dip and not to chase up prices excessively.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is quoted at 5,740-5,800 yuan/tonne, some having another fall of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 5,740-5,750 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,740, Zhangjiagang 5,800 and Guangzhou 5,740-5,750).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,770-4,830 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 (Tianjin 4,780-4,790, up 40; Rizhao 4,830, up 50; Zhangjiagang 4,780, up 50; Zhangjiagang 4,780, up 20; Guangzhou 4,770-4,780, up 50; Xiamen 4,820, up 20).
Imported rapeseed oil: Today imported rapeseed oil price continues to rise. Its quotation in coastal areas is mainly at 6,430-6,620 yuan/tonne, up 20-30 (Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian not quoted; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,550, up 20 yuan/tonne, Fangchenggang Maple, Guangxi 1901-300 upon basis). Currently, oil mills are still positive toward later market of oils, for forward soybean supply will be restricted by the ongoing trade spats. But oil market is now constrained by the weak fundamentals, with a high stock of soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and an increasing stock of Malysian palm oil in September. Overall, rapeseed meal market will go up in fluctuation before trade conflicts unfreeze. But in case of a meeting between US and China presidents amid the G20 Summit, buyers are suggested not to force up prices, and those with inadequate stock can replenish on the dip.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price keeps stable today, as oil mills are reluctant to sell their stock amid tight supply and low prices in recent history and amid the ongoing trade war. But in face of the news of meeting between China and US presidents, another fall of 10-20 of soybean oil spots, the oversupply of bulk oils and its own limited end demand, cottonseed oil price may fluctuate narrowly in the short term, but will still go strong in fluctuation as trade conflicts linger on.
(USD $1=CNY 6.90)
