Today (Oct. 11th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Prices for imported soybean keep stable, where non-GM Canadian soybean is quoted at 4,050 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are not offered. Brazilian soybean sale will have drawn to a close from October to February 2019, which will also lessen soybean imports to China in the fourth quarter. According to a latest survey by Cofeed, the arrival of soybean is estimated at 6.399 Mln tonnes boarded 102 ships heading China in October. And the preliminary estimate is 5.9 Mln tonnes for November, 5.5 Mln for December and only 3.8 Mln tonnes for January, 2019. Current arrival of soybean at port is about 3.8-4.0 Mln tonnes. Concerned about forward supply shortage of soybean, importers are struggling to support price. In general, as forward soybean supply is disturbing the market when there is no sign of a thaw in the US-China trade disputes, distribution market of imported soybean may seek to go strong steadily despite some fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed price has a slight gain of 0.02 yuan/kg. And its market is still supported by the ongoing trade conflicts, the small amount of new cottonseed on the market and small amount from Xinjiang in face of inconvenient transportation and rising freight. And its overall market is still curbed by thin crush margins in oil mills and oil mills’ caution against purchasing high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. In general, the short-term cottonseed market is predicted to trend up in fluctuation, and buyers can replenish on the dip.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean underwent another fall last night due to a bearish-likely USDA report and the slumps of US stock market and crude oil. Today oils on DCE have obvious callbacks, followed by spots of domestic soybean oil and palm oil to fall and trade lower. Oil market is constrained by the weak fundamentals, where soybean oil stock has seen a historic high of 1.73 Mln tonnes and Malaysian palm oil stock keeps increasing in September. In face of escalating trade war under deteriorating US-China relations, South American soybean price is also soaring, so concerns over forward soybean supply is increasing. Overall, oils are unlikely to have large callbacks amid trade conflicts, and will keep trending up. In case of a bearish-likely USDA report tonight, buyers can just wait and replenish properly at low prices upon callbacks and steady falls.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is quoted at 5,740-5,800 yuan/tonne, down by 40-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 5,750-5,760 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,760, Zhangjiagang 5,800 and Guangzhou 5,740-5,750).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is priced at 4,720-4,790 yuan/tonne, down by 30-70 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 4,750-4,760, down 60; Rizhao 4,780-4,790, down 70; Zhangjiagang 4,730, down 70; Guangdong 4,750; Xiamen not quoted).
Imported rapeseed oil: Today imported rapeseed oil price continues to rise. Its quotation in coastal areas is at 6,490-6,690 yuan/tonne, up 30-50 (Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian not quoted; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,550, down 50 yuan/tonne, Fangchenggang Maple, Guangxi 1901-300 upon basis). Currently, operation rate picks up for healthy crush margins despite the slack season after holidays, so stocks of soybean oil and rapeseed oil keep climbing. Such continuous oversupply will probably restrict the upside height of rapeseed oil in the short run. But the deteriorating US-China relations has escalated the trade conflicts, which will finally make a dent in forward soybean supply. In view of this, market participants are positive to later market, so rapeseed oil price will keep rising despite the fluctuations at its bottom. Buyers can wait for steady fall and replenish on the dip.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price keeps stable today, for oil mills are hoarding their small stock considering the forward soybean shortage under the ongoing trade frictions. However, US soybean continued to fall last night due to a bearish-likely report by USDA tonight and the trade conflicts. The slumps of US stock market and crude oil drag down oils on DCE today, followed by soybean oil spots to drop by 40-60. Due to its low ending demand, cottonseed oil will suffer narrow fluctuations in the near run, but will still go upside amid the trade tensions.
(USD $1=CNY 6.93)
