Today (Oct. 10th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM Canadian soybean is quoted at 4,050 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are not offered. Brazilian soybean sale will have drawn to a close from October to February 2019, which will also lessen soybean imports to China in the fourth quarter. According to a latest survey by Cofeed, the arrival of soybean is estimated at 6.399 Mln tonnes boarded 102 ships heading China in October. And the preliminary estimate for November is 5.9 Mln tonnes. And it will be 5.5 Mln in December and only 3.8 Mln tonnes in January, 2019. Current arrival of soybean at port is about 3.8-4.0 Mln tonnes. Amid the concerns over forward supply of soybean, importers are struggling to support price. In general, as forward soybean supply is disturbing the market when there is no sign of a thaw in the US-China trade disputes, distribution market of imported soybean may seek to go strong steadily despite some fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed market is still constrained by the ongoing trade conflicts, the small amount of new cottonseed on the market and small amount of cottonseed from Xinjiang in face of inconvenient transportation and rising freight. And its overall market is still curbed by thin crush margins in oil mills and oil mills’ caution against purchasing high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. In general, the short-term cottonseed market is predicted to trend up in fluctuation, and buyers can replenish on the dip.
Oils:
Summary: Subjected to the trade tensions and USDA’s report on this Thursday evening, in which output and stock of soybean may be raised, US soybean stayed stagnant and even fell back last night. Today, oils on DCE have another gain, followed by part of soybean oil and palm oil spots to increase. And the trading volume is low since buyers have replenished in the past few days. Currently, oils have little chance to rebound under the oversupply state, where soybean stock has refreshed a new record of 1.73 Mln tonnes under high operation rate in oil mills. But due to the devaluation of RMB under slim hopes for US-China reconciliation, as well as the increasing price upon basis of South American soybean, soybean arriving at port will be only 11.4 Mln tonnes in November and December and 4.0 Mln tonnes in January 2019, under which its supply may get tight. Besides, international crude oil have got a strong growth impetus. Therefore, oils will basically keep trending up throughout the ongoing trade war. But in consideration of the bearish report on this Thursday evening, participants shall be wary of short volatility, and buyers with adequate stock can just wait and replenish on the dip after callbacks.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is mainly quoted at 5,780-5,880 yuan/tonne by an increase of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 5,780-5,790 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,810, Zhangjiagang 5,880 and Guangzhou 5,830-5,840).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,750-4,860 yuan/tonne, up 10 partially (Tianjin 4,810-4,820, up 10; Rizhao 4,860-4,880, up 40; Zhangjiagang 4,800, unchanged; Guangzhou 4,750; Xiamen 4,850-4,860, unchanged).
Imported rapeseed oil: Today imported rapeseed oil continues to rise in price . Its quotation in coastal areas is mainly at 6,490-6,690 yuan/tonne, up 30-50 (Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian not quoted; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,600, up 50 yuan/tonne, Fangchenggang Maple, Guangxi 1901-300 upon basis). Currently, oil mills are still positive toward later market, as import cost of rapeseed will be lifted by the RMB devaluation and forward soybean supply will be restricted by the ongoing trade spats. But oil market is still in oversupply, due to the increasing stock of rapeseed oil, soybean oil and palm oil in the slack season after holidays, so rapeseed meal price still only has small gains, and may follow futures to suffer frequent fluctuations in its upward way. USDA’s report on Thursday evening may be bearish to the market, so buyers can just wait and make replenish on the dip after callbacks.
Cottonseed oil: Oils on DCE continue to rise today. Its overall stability today is attributed to the increase of soybean oil spots by 10-20, plus cottonseed oil mills’ unwillingness to sell out under limited supply and low price. But its upward height is still limited by the large stock of bulk oils and its own pale deals under low ending demand. Overall, cottonseed oil market may suffer narrow fluctuations in the near term and may go strong out from fluctuation before trade war ends. And buyer can replenish at low.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
