Today (Oct. 9th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans stays stagnant and keeps stable, where non-GM Canadian soybean prices at 4,050 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are not offered. Brazilian soybean sale will have drawn to a close from October to February 2019, which will also lessen soybean imports to China in the fourth quarter. According to a latest survey by Cofeed, the arrival of soybean is estimated at 6.399 Mln tonnes boarded 102 ships heading China in October. Besides, the preliminary estimate is 5.9 Mln tonnes for November and 5.5 Mln for December and only 3.8 Mln tonnes for January, 2019. Current arrival of soybean at port is predicted to be just about 3.8-4.0 Mln tonnes. Amid the concerns over forward supply of soybean, importers are struggling to support price. In general, as forward soybean supply is disturbing the market when there is no sign of a thaw in the US-China trade disputes, distribution market of imported soybean may seek to go strong steadily despite some fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed price stabilizes today. This is due to the bullish market of cottonseed oil and meal, in addition, the amount of new cottonseed is still small in the market, while traffic tensions and transportation fees are blocking cottonseed bound for mainland China from Xinjiang. And its overall market is still curbed by thin crush margins in oil mills and oil mills’ caution against purchasing high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. The short-term cottonseed market is predicted to trend up in fluctuation, and buyers can replenish on the dip.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean edged up slightly last night, for soybean harvest might be postponed by the rainfalls. Today oils on DCE have another gain, with spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil to increase and only attract some deals at low price. Operation rate picks up in oil mills due to high crush margins, while oils have already entered slack season after festival. Under such circumstance, soybean oil stock has moved to a new record of 1.71 Mln tonnes, and palm oil stock is also climbing. Therefore, oils still lack of rebound momentum. But oils prices will trend all the way up in fluctuation in the medium and long term?for following factors: later soybean supply may get tighter due to the RMB devaluation, a slim hope for a thaw in trade war, and the rises upon basis of South American soybean, while crude oil earns a strong momentum due to the US sanctions against Iran. Nonetheless, soybean oil has not benefited as much as soybean meal from the trade war, so the upside space of oils is smaller than that of soybean meal, and will still see frequent fluctuations in this process. Overall, US soybean may welcome a sunny weekend in planting areas, plus the bearish potential in USDA’s report this Thursday, so market operators with enough stock can just wait, and replenish on the dip later.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is mainly quoted at 5,790-5,880 yuan/tonne by an increase of 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 5,770-5,780 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,780-5,790, Zhangjiagang 5,880 and Guangzhou 5,800).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,740-4,880 yuan/tonne, up 30-50 (Tianjin 4,800-4,810, up 10; Rizhao 4,860-4,880, up 40; Zhangjiagang 4,800, up 50; Guangzhou 4,740; Xiamen 4,850, up 50).
Imported rapeseed oil: Today imported rapeseed oil price stays stable. Its quotation in coastal areas is mainly at 6,460-6,610 yuan/tonne, up 70-100 (Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian not quoted; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,550, up 100 yuan/tonne, Fangchenggang Maple, Guangxi 1901-300 upon basis). Currently, rapeseed oil is getting support from the gaps in forward soybean supply under the ongoing trade spat and from the growth impetus of crude oil over US sanction on Iran. But due to the slack season after holidays, rapeseed oil stock in South China last week amounted to 140,000 tonnes, and soybean oil stock has hit a new high of 1.71 Mln tonnes. Under the ongoing supply pressure, oils will be forced to continue its oversupply pattern, and thus, rapeseed oil price will still get curbed and may follow futures to suffer frequent volatility in its upside trend. So buyers shall not force up price excessively and shall wait for callbacks to replenish on the dip.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil stays stagnant today due to the large stock of bulk oils and its own pale deals under low ending demand. But oils on DCE continue to rise today upon the concerns over trade tensions. The increase of soybean oil spots by 20-40, plus cottonseed oil’s limited supply and low price, cottonseed oil mills are still inclined to sell out. So cottonseed oil price may suffer narrow fluctuations in the short term, but it may go strong in volatility before trade conflicts cease. And buyers can replenish on the dip.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
