Today (Oct. 8th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans have gains today, where non-GM Canadian soybean is quoted at 4,050 yuan/tonne, up 70 from that before National Day, and GM imported soybeans are not offered. Due to strong weekly export data, plus the possible harvest delay of US soybean and damage on its crops incurred from rainy weather in Midwest states, US soybean last Friday have another closing gain of 9.75 cents to 869 cents, totally gaining 23.5 cents from that before China’s National Day. And this is quite bullish to imported soybean spots. In addition, Brazilian soybean sale will gradually draw to a close from October to February 2019, which will also lessen soybean imports to China in the fourth quarter. According to a latest survey by Cofeed, the arrival of soybean at port will see declines to 6.4 Mln tonnes in October, 5.9 Mln tonnes in November, 5.5 Mln in December and only 3.8 Mln tonnes in January, 2019. Under such circumstances, importers are struggling to support price amid the concerns over forward supply of soybean. In general, as forward soybean supply is disturbing the market when there is no sign of a thaw in the US-China trade disputes, distribution market of imported soybean may seek to go strong steadily despite some fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed price steps down partially by 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg today. And its overall market is curbed by thin crush margins in oil mills and oil mills’ caution against purchasing high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. However, the price fall is slight due to the bullish market of cottonseed oil and meal today, in addition, the amount of new cottonseed is still small in the market, while traffic tensions and transportation fees are blocking cottonseed bound for mainland China from Xinjiang. The short-term cottonseed market is predicted to trend up in fluctuation, and buyers can replenish on the dip.
Oils:
Summary: Due to strong weekly export, plus the possible harvest delay of US soybean incurred from rainy weather in Midwest states, US soybean totally gained 23.5 cents over China’s National Day. So oils rise on DCE today, which is also due to increasing import cost by the RMB devaluation. And spots of soybean oil and palm oil follow to rise, with those at low prices attracting some deals. The slack demand for oils after holidays and the oversupply (among which soybean oil stock nearly levels off the record of 1.7 Mln tonnes and palm oil is also increasing) together curb the upside impetus of oil spots, especially when some traders choose to buy meals and sell oils due to soybean meals’ strong growth amid the ongoing trade conflicts. But oils prices will go upside with some fluctuations in the medium and long term amid later soybean supply tensions over the trade disputes and the strong growth impetus of crude oil, and buyers are suggested to replenish for a safety stock, but not to chase prices us excessively.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I Soybean oil in coastal areas is mainly priced at 5,750-5,830 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne from that before National Day (Tianjin 5,750-5,760, Rizhao 5,750, Zhangjiagang 5,830 and Guangdong 5,780-5,790).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,680-4,820 yuan/tonne, up 30-50 (Tianjin 4,770-4,780, up 50; Rizhao 4,820; Zhangjiagang 4,750, up 30; Guangzhou 4,680; Xiamen 4,800, up 50).
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal see gains today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,600-2,670 yuan/tonne, up 30-90 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi offers 2,600, up 50; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,670, up 50; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian not offered). Taking the advantage of forward soybean supply gap amid trade war, oil mills are active in lifting soybean meal prices, which in turn expands the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. So rapeseed meal, as a substitute, enjoys an increasing demand, continuing to see a declining stock in coastal areas. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will go upside in fluctuation before trade conflicts thaw. But slack season will interrupt for the time being after double holidays, plus the rampant ASF, and a new round of trade talks may be declared with the upcoming of US mid-term election on November 6th or amid the G20 Summit on November 30th; hence, rapeseed meal price may suffer strong volatility. And buyers shall replenish appropriately on the dip and not to chase up prices excessively.
Cottonseed oil: Oils on DCE today get support from the increasing US soybean price and hardened crude oil market. Following the increase of soybean oil spots by 20-50, cottonseed oil achieves ab increase of 20-50 yuan/tonne partially today, which is also contributed to the oil mills’ efforts in lifting the price amid tight supply and low prices. However, based on stock pressure of bulk oils and its own flat ending supply, cottonseed oil is predicted to suffer narrow fluctuations in the near run, but it may trend up despite the fluctuations before trade spats end. By the way, buyers are suggested to replenish on the dip.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
