Today (Oct. 16th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: The quotation for imported soybean is unchanged today, where non-GM Canadian soybean levels off at 4,050 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean is not offered. US soybean import is now reeling from the ongoing US-China trade frictions. According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, soybean import at port is projected at 6.399 Mln tonnes boarded 102 ships to domestic ports in October, and 7 Mln tonnes in November. The volume will be less than 12 Mln tonnes in December and January together, which is far lower than that of the same period last year. Importers are in strong will for supporting the price as market participants have concerns over the soybean supply in later market. Nevertheless, the price advantage of imported soybean turns invisible due to its narrowed spread with domestic soybean, so its shipment is blocked. Besides, imported soybean is still in liberal supply currently. Therefore, the overall increment is further restricted. Generally, facing the competition of trade war and market supply & demand, imported soybean distributing markets may see no large volatility in near term, and the overall market may largely remain stable from narrow adjustments.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed steps down partially by 0.01 yuan/kg today. Currently, oil mills remain cautious about purchasing high-priced cottonseed under dismal crush margin and increasing amount of new cottonseed on the market, in addition to the declines of cottonseed oil. But from the perspectives of the ongoing trade conflicts, the small amount of new cottonseed on the market and small volume from Xinjiang under inconvenient transportation and rising freight, cottonseed market still gets restrained. And the short-term cottonseed market is predicted to trend up in fluctuation, and buyers can buy on hand-to-mouth basis.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean closed higher for three consecutive days last night due to the bad harvesting weather and its strong demand, but today oils on DCE stay stagnant and have callbacks. And spots of domestic soybean oil and palm oil also stop rising and even fall down, attracting some deals at lows yet totally flat. Operation rate picks up sharply for the healthy crush margins so that soybean oil stock refreshes its historical high again to 1.81 Mln tonnes, so its overall market turns stressed out to stop rising and have callbacks. Nevertheless, there is slim hope to settle the trade conflict in the near term, under which soybean stock has shrunk by 4% and will face inventory issues in later market. So participants are positive to later market, and oil market is predicted to have few callbacks and will remain its upward trend from overall fluctuations. By the way, buyers can replenish moderately on the dip.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is mainly quoted at 5,750-5,800 yuan/tonne, down by 10-40 yuan/tonne partially (Tianjin traders 5,750-5,760 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,760, Zhangjiagang 5,800 and Guangzhou 5,750).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,800-4,860 yuan/tonne, some falling by 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 4,810-4,820, down 10; Rizhao 4,860, down 40; Zhangjiagang 4,830, unchanged; Guangdong 4,800, down 30; Xiamen not quoted).
Imported rapeseed oil: Today imported rapeseed oil price are mostly stable, some seeing slight falls. Its quotation in coastal areas is at 6,450-6,620 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 partially (Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian not quoted; Dongguan FUzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,580, down 20; Fangchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi 6,500, down 50). The oversupply of domestic oils continues as rapeseed oil and soybean oil still remain high stocks, so rapeseed oil fails to keep rising and stays stagnant today to have falls. Merely, forward soybean supply will be dented by the trade conflicts, in addition, rapeseed price soar in Canada due to the chilly and rainy weather in its main planted areas; hence, rapeseed oil price will edge up in fluctuation amid trade tensions. Subject to a possible meeting between the US and China presidents, rapeseed oil market may fluctuate frequently, so buyers can buy on a mouth-to-hand basis.
Cottonseed oil: Oil market is supported by forward supply gap of soybean as trade tensions are yet to ease. By itself, cottonseed oil is in short supply and low prices in recent years so that oil mills are reluctant to sell out, which makes cottonseed oil price keep stable today. However, oils on DCE stop rising and have callbacks today due to the large inventory of soybean oil, whose spots fall by 10-40 yuan/tonne. In general, cottonseed oil market may fluctuate narrowly due to its small end demand and the large amounts of new cottonseed oil on the market soon, but its market will still go strong amid the trade tensions.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
