Today (Nov. 1st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean rebounded overnight, but meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) slump today. And soybean meal spots follow to fall and trade low. The price in coastal areas is 3,390-3,460 yuan/tonne, down 30-60 yuan/tonne from yesterday (Tianjin 3,400-3,410, Shandong 3,400-3,450 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,390-3,430, Dongguan 3,450-3,460, Guangxi 3,460-3,470). Soybean meal is losing ground, as China has released new standards to lower down protein content, which may reduce soybean meal consumption by 11 Mln tonnes. And in South America, some refineries, due to dismal crush margins, resold their soybean to China, with 11 ships last week and 6 ships this week so far; besides, some countries have been signing soybean contracts for December. This means soybean supply gap in China will be far smaller than expected, thus shaking the confidence of oil mills in supporting the price. Besides, due to the large price spread with mixed meals and the ongoing African swine fever, soybean meal consumption becomes sluggish recently, causing its stock to pick up by 19% weekly. In addition, US president said that a satisfactory agreement would be reached with China. Therefore, soybean meal market extends its declines again, and those declines are much larger than anticipated. Buyers can just buy on hand-to-mouth basis, and increase the positions on the dips after steady falls.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price continues to slip today, of which it is 2,550-2,610 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-30 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,580, down 20; Guangdong 2,600, down 20; Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian 2,620, down 30). China has released new standards for animal feed, which may lower down soybean meal consumption by 11 Mln tonnes. Therefore, domestic meal futures suffer slumps. And the ongoing African swine fever is still bearish to meal consumption. However, rapeseed meal is still of tight supply, while its demand has increased due to the price spread with soybean meal, so its price declines are limited. On the whole, rapeseed meal market will probably fluctuate upon callbacks to consolidate in the short term, and later market will depend on the trade frictions. If the frictions can be settled at the meeting late this month, meal market will slump, but if not, the market will edge up again. Buyers can just wait for steady falls to replenish properly on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Price for fishmeal is stable today, with limited negotiating space and flat shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 60,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 10,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Fishmeal inventory is on the rise in the slack season, but its import cost is still lifted by RMB devaluation, so holders are still waiting. The overall market is predicted to keep stable to go weak before the release of new fishing quotas from Peru.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE extend to decline today, and soybean meal spots fall by 30-60 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal also loses 20-50 yuan/tonne partially, for it performs poorly in clinching new deals when meal consumption is slashed by the rampant African swine fever. In addition, new cottonseed is on the rise, so short term market may continue to adjust upon callbacks. But as its demand has picked up slightly amid its tight supply due to its price spread with soybean meal, so its market get more resilient than soybean meal market. By the way, buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
(USD $1=CNY 6.97)
