Today (Nov. 5th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Due to the news that White House economic adviser Kudlow says Trump has not asked cabinet to draw up trade deals with China, as well as the technical rebounds after slumps, meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange stay higher above the previous session in spite of some declines today, which also limits the decline of spot prices. Today soybean meal is quoted lower among oil mills and rebound for those with large declines last week among distributors, attracting some trading volume at lows yet still small. Soybean meal price in coastal areas is 3,280-3,390 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne from yesterday among oil mills and rebounding by 10-40 yuan/tonne among distributors. (Tianjin 3,320-3,330, Shandong 3,280-3,390, Jiangsu 3,280-3,390, Dongguan 3,320-3,390, Guangxi 3,360-3,390). As there are still uncertainties in the trade conflict and some short replenishment after profit-taking, soybean meal will slow down its downward trend and may present some technical rebounds and corrections in the short run. However, soybean meal market is now facing bad fundamentals. For one thing, forward soybean gap will be far smaller than anticipated when oil are processing more domestic new soybeans and South America are still signing the contracts for December. For another, soybean meal inventory continues to increase as operation rate is high under healthy crush margins. In general, the market will be hard to surge before the meeting between US and Chinese presidents later this month, and may fluctuate to adjust repeatedly. Market participants need to keep monitoring the US mid-election results, which may affect President Trump’s attitude toward trade talks. Currently, a poll showed that the Republican may lose the House of Representatives to hold the Senate. By the way, buyers holding no inventory can buy in small batch, but be cautious when driving up the price.
Imported rapeseed meal: Today imported rapeseed meal price continues to fall, of which it is 2,470-2,600 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,470; Guangdong 2,480, down 20; Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian 2,600, down 10). Amid the slack demand from aquaculture and under rampant African swine fever, rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas has risen to 6,500 tonnes last week, which is bearish to rapeseed meal market. But the bad pressure has slightly released after the slump last week, and the downtrend may be slower this week. In general, the market may fluctuate frequently before the meeting between US and Chinese presidents, and buyers can replenish moderately on the dips and should be cautious when driving up the price.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 59,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 10,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. The quotation for fishmeal will mainly remain placid when both domestic and foreign markets are waiting for new fishing quotas from Peruvian government, and the overall market is predicted to stay stable in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: In response to an easing trade relationship after a phone call between US and Chinese presidents in Thursday evening, meals on DCE hit the daily decline limit last Friday, and cottonseed meal market stopped the quotation to wait on the sidelines. As the rampant African swine fever is still weakening meal demand, and soybean meal fall another 10-50 yuan/tonne, cottonseed meal is offered lower by 100-200 yuan/tonne upon Thursday. There is almost no deal when market is still watching. But there are still uncertainties in the trade war, and cottonseed meal demand has climbed a little due to the price spread with soybean meal, while cottonseed meal is now not in adequate supply; hence, it may slow down its downward pace in the next few days. Market participants need to keep monitoring the meeting between US and Chinese presidents later this month. If trade conflicts are settled, the market will slump; if not, it will go up sharply.
(USD $1=CNY 6.91)
