Today (Nov. 5th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean quotation stops declines to stabilize today, of which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and Russian soybean remains unchanged from last Friday at 3,600 yuan/tonne. And GM soybean is not offered. Domestic market turns bullish somewhat upon the news that White House economic adviser Kudlow says Trump has not asked cabinet to draw up trade deals with China. On the whole, the distribution market of imported soybean may stay stable to have narrow adjustments. Market participants need to keep monitoring the US mid-election results, which may affect President Trump’s attitude toward trade talks. Currently, a poll showed that the Republican may lose the House of Representatives to hold the Senate.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed is offered lower by 0.02-0.06 yuan/kg, for both oil and meal markets run weak, and oil mills remain cautious and have even stopped purchase in face of high-priced cottonseed amid dismal crush margins and the increased amount of new cottonseed. But there are still uncertainties in trade frictions and the volume from Xinjiang is limited by traffic tensions, so mainland cottonseed market posts limited declines. Overall, as oil and meal will remain weak in the short term, cottonseed market may still go weak to adjust. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean rebounded and its oil declined last Friday. For the news that White House economic adviser Kudlow says Trump has not asked cabinet to draw up trade deals with China, oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange go higher after a lower open, and obviously stay higher above the previous close. Oil spots mostly stay stable after previous declines, of which soybean oil and palm oil fluctuate partially and trade better in spite of the overall small volume. The end demand for soybean meal is still weak with oil mills slow in taking delivery, though its stock has slowed down the growing pace as the crush volume has dwindled to 1.86 Mln tonnes in oil mills due to large inventories. Besides, some oil mills in South America are reselling their soybeans to China, and Brazilian soybeans are being planted at an unprecedented speed. In this context, forward soybean supply gap may be far smaller than anticipated. Under such bad fundamentals, oil market may fluctuate to go weak. But there are still uncertainties in the trade war amid frequent messages from the Trump administration, so the overall oil market is predicted to fluctuate frequently before the meeting between US and Chinese presidents later this month. Oil market may post some short-term technical rebounds after slumps, so buyers out of inventories are suggested to replenish in small batch on the dips and to be cautious in driving up the price.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,430-5,500 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 5,470-5,480, Rizhao 5,450, Zhangjiagang 5,500, Guangzhou 5,430-5,450).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,530-4,650 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 70-80 yuan/tonne partially (Tianjin 4,640-4,650, up 10; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,600, stable; Guangzhou 4,530, up 20; Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil price declines sharply today, of which it is 6,240-6,410 yuan/tonne (Fujian 6,340, Guangdong 6,330, Guangxi 6,250). Last week, rapeseed oil stock has increased by 3% to 153,000 tonnes in South China and by 2% to 360,000 tonnes in East China. And soybean oil stock has also stayed at a historical high. Under such an oversupply pattern, rapeseed oil mill is cracked down. But there are still uncertainties in the trade spat, while oil mills are still supporting the price as the small packing oil stockpile in the run up to the Spring Festival will gradually start in December, so the overall market will slow down its downtrend and is predicted to rebound technically in the short term. Buyers are suggested to replenish in small batches on the dips, but not to force up the price.
Cottonseed oil: In response to an easing trade relationship after a phone call between U.S. and Chinese Presidents in Thursday evening, oils on DCE hit the daily decline limit last Friday, and cottonseed oil market mostly stopped the quotation to wait on the sidelines. Today cottonseed oil is offered lower by 50-150 yuan/tonne upon last Thursday, and most buyers are still watching, so the trade volume is small. Bulk oil market is still burdened with pressure due to the large inventories amid low demand, but cottonseed oil just hold small stocks so that oil mills are apt to support the price and some still offer no quotation. In general, cottonseed oil market is predicted to fluctuate to consolidate in the short term on the back of soybean oil, and will slow down its downward pace in coming few days. Market participants need to keep monitoring the meeting between US and Chinese presidents later this month. If trade conflicts are settled, the market will go weak further; if not, it will probably edge up.
(USD $1=CNY 6.91)
