Soybean: Soybean inventory continues to decline this week due to the high operation rate in oil mills and a relatively small import volume last week. This week (as of Nov. 2nd), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 6,524,100 tonnes, down 365,900 tonnes by 5.31% from 6,890,000 tonnes last week, yet up by 76.40% from 3,698,300 tonnes of the same week last year. The arriving volume of soybean at port will be relatively small from November to January, under which soybean inventory may keep declining later. And if trade frictions cannot be resolved soon, soybean supply will get tight from December to February.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks keep increasing this week, for it continued to trade lower last week due to futures slumps and low end demand, despite the high operation. Until this week (as of Oct 26th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal refineries totals 968,900 tonnes, up 75,300 tonnes by 8.42% from 893,600 tonnes last week, and up by 56.85% from 617,700 tonnes of the same week last year. The crush volume will extend to drop next week, but the trading volume will not present notable improvement under bearish fundamentals; hence, soybean meal stock may increase slightly next week.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: This week, outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills continue to increase. As of November 2nd, contracts in domestic main areas hold 5,478,100 tonnes unfinished, down 965,700 tonnes by 21.40% from 4,512,400 tonnes last week, yet down by 19.28% from 6,786,900 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
