Today (Nov. 6th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged down last night, but today meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) extend their rebounds. Soybean meal spots go up to trade better at lows but little at highs. The price in coastal areas is 3,300-3,400 yuan/tonne, up 20-40 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 3,320, Shandong 3,300-3,390, Jiangsu 3,300-3,370, Dongguan 3,360-3,400, Guangxi 3,360-3,420). Import soybean volume will be relatively small in December to February due to trade frictions, so market participants still have expectations for later market; thus soybean meal market attracts many bargain hunters after sharp falls in price, leading to a market rebound. However, amid the high operation rate in oil mills and sluggish consumption among downstream companies, soybean meal inventory keeps rising, of which it has increased to 970,000 tonnes by 8% in coastal areas last weekend. In this context, soybean meal is unlikely to post straight surges before the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents. The market may turn volatile in response to the US midterm elections tonight, so buyers can just take hand-to-mouth basis amid awaiting the election result and the guidance in USDA’s report on Thursday.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price are mixed today, of which it is 2,460-2,590 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 20-40 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,460, down 10; Guangdong 2,500, up 20; Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian 2,590, down 10). Currently, uncertainties in trade frictions still pervade the market. In addition, rapeseed meal has seen an increased ratio in animal feed amid its tight stocks due to its price spread with soybean meal by 800 yuan/tonne. So rapeseed meal market has little room for declines. But soybean meal stock keeps rising under handsome crush profits, so the rapeseed meal market is unlikely to surge before the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, and may fluctuate to adjust repeatedly. Market participants can keep an eye on the US midterm election result, which may change President Trump’s attitude towards US-China talks. Buyers are suggested to replenish properly on the dips, but not to force up the price excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,600 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 58,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 58,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 10,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. The import volume has reduced significantly, while market participants are still awaiting new fishing quotas from Peru, so the fishmeal price will steady largely and will probably run stable in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Meal demand is subject to the contagious African swine fever, for which soybean meal inventory has picked up largely and cottonseed meal trades poorly. In this context, cottonseed meal falls by 40 yuan/tonne partially today. But meals on the DCE extend gains after a higher open, and soybean meal spots follow to rise by 20-30 yuan/tonne. The enlarged price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal has slightly increased the demand for the latter amid its inadequate supply, which helps limit its price declines. The futures market may fluctuate wildly on the back of the US midterms election tonight, so buyers are suggested to keep an eye on that.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
