Today (Nov. 7th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean quotation stops declining to steady today, of which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,590 yuan/tonne. And GM soybean is not offered. Talking of the US midterm election result, as expected, Democrats are poised to win control of?the US House and Republicans retain control of?the Senate. But this may exert little effect on soybean market. Currently, soybean market still gets support from its tight supply at ports since the import volume is still small recently. On the whole, before the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, the distribution market of imported soybean may stay stable to have narrow adjustments.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed price including freight goes up partially today, for the volume from Xinjiang to inland China is restricted by traffic tensions and increasing freight, in addition that the trade spat still remains as an uncertainty. But the overall market is still restricted by the weak performance of its oil and meal, poor crush margins in oil mills and oil mills’ hand-to-mouth buying in face of high-priced cottonseed amid an increased amount of new cottonseed. Generally, cottonseed market may post narrow volatility in the short term, so buyers can replenish in small batches on the dips.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean continued to fall last night, and today oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuate to drop. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots edge down and trade low. Soybean oil stock still hovers near a historical high, though operation rate has been reined in response to the swollen inventory. And futures market is cracked down by an easing trade state, slowing down the delivery speed among oil mills. In addition, some oil mills in South America are reselling their soybean to China due to poor crush margins, which will help narrow down soybean supply gap. Facing such fundamentals, oil market is still burdened with pressure and may go weak to fluctuate before the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents. Talking of the US midterm election result, as expected, Democrats are poised to win control of?the US House and Republicans retain control of?the Senate. But this result may exert little effect on the market. As there are still large uncertainties in the trade frictions, buyers can just take hand-to-mouth basis and replenish a little bit on the dips if out of stock.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,420-5,500 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, some down by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 5,450-5,460, Rizhao 5,460, Zhangjiagang 5,500, Guangzhou 5,420-5,430).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,480-4,610 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly down by 20-30 yuan/tonne largely (Tianjin 4,600-4,610, down 20; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,550, down 30; Guangzhou 4,480, down 20; Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil remains basically stable today, of which it is 6,130-6,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, some down by 10 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 6,340, Guangdong 6,330, Guangxi 6,250, stable). Rapeseed oil market finds little room to go upward amid following weak fundamentals: slack demand for oils, far smaller-than-expected gaps in soybean supply, large inventories of soybean oil and rapeseed oil amid high operation rate. But there are still uncertainties in the trade war, and imported soybean volume is relatively small from November to February. Besides, talking of the US midterm election results, Democrats have won the control of?the US House as expected, which may register disapproval of Trump's tariff policy. If so, the market may get some benefits. Buyers can replenish properly on the dips, rather than force up the price.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil increases by 50 yuan/tonne at lows today. Cottonseed price is raised amid dismal crush margins in oil mills, in addition that cottonseed oil owns small stocks, so oil mills are hoarding their stocks to support the price. But bulk oils still have large inventories, and soybean oil spots have seen some losses of 10-30 yuan/tonne today. So cottonseed oil price is hard to surge, especially when its end demand is low amid an increased volume of new cottonseed oil on the market. In general, cottonseed oil will follow soybean oil to suffer frequent fluctuations in the short term, so buyers can replenish on the dips when out of stock.
(USD $1=CNY 6.93)
