Today (Nov. 9th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged down last night upon the bearish USDA’s report, and meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fall today. Domestic soybean meal spots step down and trade flat overall to see some deals at lows. The price in coastal areas is 3,250-3,360 yuan/tonne, down 20-40 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 3,310, Shandong 3,250-3,300, Jiangsu 3,280-3,340, Dongguan 3,340-3,360, Guangxi 3,360-3,380). Currently, downstream feed companies are slow in delivery as aquaculture is entering into the slack season and the contagious African swine fever (ASF) is crippling hog replenishment, which is bearish to soybean meal market. But price declines are now limited, for operation rate have dropped sharply in East China due to environmental checks amid China International Import Expo and oil mills are supporting the price in view of small soybean imports in November to February. Out of the uncertainty in trade disputes, market participants will remain cautious before the meeting of the US and Chinese presidents later this month; hence, soybean meal may largely post frequent fluctuations. If meals rebound on the DCE in afternoon sessions, buyers can replenish appropriately on the dips, but if not, buyers can just wait.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price steps down today, of which it is 2,400-2,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 30-70 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,400, down 50; Guangdong 2,420, down 70; Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian 2,540, down 30). Aquaculture is now in the slack season as it is getting cold. In addition, cheap Ukrainian sunflower meal is flooding into China, which is a hard hit to rapeseed meal market as it can take up around 10% in aquatic feed. Moreover, India has shipped some 50,000 tonnes of rapeseed meal to China last month. And Brazil are still signing soybean contracts of ETD in December, with its new soybean planted at an unprecedented speed on the other hand so as to load it in January. In this context, rapeseed meal market will continue to drop as the soybean supply gap is far smaller than anticipated. However, the US-China trade relationship will be clear only after the meeting between the presidents at G20 Summit later this month. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is predicted to fluctuate to adjust on the back of futures, and buyers can replenish on the dips after steady declines upon callbacks.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted lower and can be traded with price negotiations, with flat delivery at port. Northern ports: price is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, correspondingly down 100 yuan/tonne, 100-200 yuan/tonne and 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Southern ports: price is 10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, each down 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Stocks at port: Huangpu 63,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 58,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Fishmeal holders are now burdened with pressure, for the inventory is trending up amid thin demands and and the market turn bearish upon the new season quotas from Peru, so short-term market will probably go weak.
Cottonseed meal: US soybean edged down last night due to the bearish USDA’s report as expected. Today meals on the DCE fall upon a lower open, and soybean meal spots step down 20-40 yuan/tonne, so cottonseed meal sees some declines of 30-50 yuan/tonne amid its flat trading volumes. But there is limited room for declines due to its inadequate supply, especially when it enjoys a higher demand due to the large price spread with soybean meal as cottonseed price is relatively high. On the whole, short-term cottonseed meal market may go weak to fluctuate, and buyers can just wait.
(USD $1=CNY 6.95)
