Today (Nov. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: In response to the US-China trade detente, US soybean gained last Friday, while meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) post losses today. And soybean meal spots edge down and trade lower. The price in coastal areas is 3,250-3,340 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 3,280, Shandong 3,250-3,300, Jiangsu 3,260-3,330, Dongguan 3,320-3,350, and Guangxi 3,360-3,380). Soybean meal market gets curbed and trade thin in recent two weeks. On one hand, soybean supply gap will be smaller than forecast, for oil mills in South America are reselling their soybeans to China, and in the meantime, Brazilian soybeans are being seeded rapidly. On the other, aquaculture has entered into the slack season, while the African swine fever (ASF) keeps denting hog replenishment. However, soybean meal stock has reversed to decline due to a sharp drop in operation rate last week. Besides, market participants are still watching the trade war. Therefore, soybean meal has limited room for price declines. Generally, short-term market may maintain narrow fluctuations, and the overall market will be guided by the outcome of two presidents’ meeting later this month. If meals on the DCE rebound in afternoon session, buyers can replenish slightly on the dips, but if not, buyers can just wait.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays stable to fluctuate today, of which it is 2,400-2,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,400, down 20; Guangdong 2,450, up 30; Zhangzhou Chintex,, Fujian 2,450, stable). Rapeseed meal market turns bearish, for its inventory has increased to 16,500 tonnes by 15.3% in coastal areas due to the slack demand from aquaculture and amid contagious ASF, in addition to a far smaller-than-expected soybean supply gap. However, there are still uncertainties in trade disputes, during which rapeseed meal is supported by its large price spread with soybean meal. In general, rapeseed meal market will post narrow fluctuations on the back of its futures in the short term, so buyers can take hand-to-mouth basis. And later market will largely depend on the meeting between China and US presidents. If they settle the the trade disputes at that time, rapeseed meal market will edge down, but if not, the market will up.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted lower and can be traded with price negotiations, with flat delivery at port. Northern ports: price is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 58,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Peruvian government data showed that the temporary quotas is 400,000 tonnes for north-central part, with a fishing period of no more than 10 days and starting on November 15th. Most holders have made no offer today as market participants still hold a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Generally, fishmeal market will probably stay stable in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE drop slightly today, and soybean meal spots fall by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal slips by 30-50 yuan/tonne fractionally due to its poor demand amid slack season of aquaculture and the outbreaks of ASF. But oil mills are supporting the price for the inadequate supply when cottonseed is relatively expensive and cottonseed meal demand has increased slightly due to its large price spread with soybean meal, so there is limited room for price declines. On the whole, short-term market may go weak to fluctuate, so buyers can just wait.
(USD $1=CNY 6.96)
