I．National stocks
This week (as of Nov. 2nd), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 400,200 tonnes, down 16,300 tonnes by 3.9% from 416,500 tonnes last week, down 48,500 tonnes by 10.8% from 448,700 tonnes month-on-month, and down 55,500 tonnes by 12.2% from 455,700 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 87,300 tonnes, down 5,500 tonnes by 5.9% from 92,800 tonnes last week.
Domestic palm oil stock has been declining for a sixth consecutive week due to the arrival delays, but importers are keen on purchasing after the import profits improved recently. It is predicted that the import volume of 24-degree palm oil will increase to 400,000-410,000 tonnes in November and 400,000 tonnes in December. In the meantime, price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continues to narrow this week to 850 yuan/tonne until this Friday, down 18 yuan/tonne as against 868 yuan/tonne last week and down 188 yuan/tonne from a previous high level of 1,038 yuan/tonne. In addition, the blending amount of palm oil will get curbed as the weather cools down. Currently, trading volume is muted on the market, of which it is only 3,300 tonnes this week, as compared to 1,700 tonnes last week. And it will take more time to build up the inventory again under the shipping delays. But due to the import glut later, palm oil stock may keep rising.
Fig.: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
Palm oil will see an increasing volume at port as more contracts have been signed in recent two weeks. According to Cofeed, import volume in October is projected at 450,000-480,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 330,000-350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), unchanged from the discreet value given last week; and it will be 530,000-560,000 tonnes in November (24-degree palm oil 400,000-410,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000-150,000 tonnes), up 60,000 tonnes from the discreet value given last week; and it will be about 530,000-550,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000-150,000 tonnes) in December, up 10,000 tonnes from that given last week. (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated on the basis of latest shipment and violation in shipment).
