Soybean: Soybean crush volume has dropped significantly to 1.69 Mln tonne last week, while its total volume arriving at port is still relatively small. In this context, soybean inventory continues to decline, yet at smaller pace. This week (as of Nov. 9th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 6,497,600 tonnes, down 26,500 tonnes by 0.41% from 6,524,100 tonnes last week, yet up 75.01% from 3,712,700 tonnes of the same week last year. The volume of soybean arriving at port will be relatively small later, under which soybean inventory may keep declining. And if trade frictions cannot be resolved soon, soybean supply will get tight from December to February.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Despite the decline in operation rate, soybean meal traded lower last week amid weak performance of futures and dismal end demand, under which its stock increases slightly, yet at a slower pace. Until this week (as of Nov. 9th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal refineries totals 975,500 tonnes, up 6,600 tonnes by 0.68% from 968,900 tonnes last week, and up by 66.42% from 586,160 tonnes of the same week last year. The crush volume will rise back to 1.79 Mln tonnes next week (week 46) and to 1.85 Mln tonnes in week 47. In addition, the trading volume will remain weak from downstream companies before the meeting between US and Chinese presidents later this month. Therefore, soybean meal stock is predicted to pick up fractionally next week.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills decline this week. As of November 9th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 5,110,400 tonnes unfinished, down 367,700 tonnes by 6.71% from 5,478,100 tonnes last week, and down by 20.22% from 6,405,800 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
