Today (Nov. 15th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged up last night. But today, meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) extend and expand their losses, as there are signs for trade thaws after the restart of talks between the US and Chinese high-level officials. And soybean meal spots also fall and trade low. The price is mainly at 3,170-3,280 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-50 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 3,200, Shandong 3,170-3,220, Jiangsu 3,180-3,250, Dongguan 3,200-3,230, and Guangxi 3,280). Soybean meal has traded quite low recently, which can be contributed to the slack demand from aquaculture and negative hog replenishment under the rampant African swine fever (ASF). In addition, after an unprecedented seeding progress, Brazil will be able to ship some 5.0 to 5.2 Mln tonnes of soybean to China in November, which is 500,000 tonnes higher than forecast. Therefore, soybean meal price will also be curbed by such a smaller-than-expected soybean supply gap. In the absence of the bull, short-term soybean meal market may fluctuate to adjust behind its futures. As crush margins deteriorate on the board due to oil and meal losses, oil mills remain in a cautious mood in soybean buying. The overall market is waiting for the guidance from the meeting between US and Chinese presidents later this month. If the trade dispute is settled after reaching a consensus, soybean will continue to be under pressure; but if not, it will rally sharply. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steps down today, of which it is 2,300-2,460 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,340; Guangdong 2,400, down 10; Fujian 2,460, down 50). Consumption on rapeseed meal continues to lower down due to the slack season of aquaculture and frequent outbreaks of the ASF. Besides, after an unprecedented seeding progress, Brazil makes it possible to ship over 5.0 Mln tonnes of soybean to China in November, a 500,000-tonne higher than forecast, which implies later soybean supply gaps will be far smaller than anticipated. In addition, there are signs for trade thaws after the restart of talks between the US and Chinese high-level officials, so that meal futures keep sinking. On the whole, short-term rapeseed meal may follow its futures to fluctuate to fall back, so buyers can just wait for the guidance from the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 70,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 57,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. While fishmeal market is pulled into bearish stance by a growing inventory under slow demands, some holders are still waiting for actual fishing situations; thus, the quotations is relatively steady at present. On the whole, the market is predicted to have limited room for volatility.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE fall after a lower open today. Cottonseed meal edges down by 50 yuan/tonne, for soybean meal spots has stepped down by 20-40 yuan/tonne, in addition to the slow demand from aquaculture. While demand for cottonseed meal has increased slightly due to its price spread with soybean meal, oil mills are supporting the price for the inadequate supply; thus cottonseed meal shows more resilience than soybean meal. But buyers remain cautious now that there may be some downward potentials upon a trade thaw, so short-term cottonseed meal may show weak fluctuations to adjust, and buyers can just wait.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
