Today (Nov. 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Last night, US soybean edged higher. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a strong response to the threat of a cold war from US Vice President Mike Pence, in addition that US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expected the US and China would reach a framework agreement at best on the G20 sidelines and the US would raise the tariff on Chinese goods on January 1 as planned. Thanks to the possible trade waves, investors started to cover after profit-taking on short positions. Today, meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rebounded sharply, and its spots follow to rise and trade better at lows, though few deals are observed for those with large hikes. The price is 3,210-3,320 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 20-70 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 3,260, Shandong 3,210-3,270, Jiangsu 3,250-3,300, Dongguan 3,260-3,280, and Guangxi 3,320-3,350). Soybean meal points to a limited end consumption as the contagious African swine fever (ASF) keeps undermining hog replenishment. What’s more, Brazil has shipped a higher-than-expected volume of old soybean to China, whilst its new soybean is being seeded at a record progress. Besides, the upward space of soybean meal is further limited by the forthcoming meeting between the US and Chinese presidents later this month, so short-term market may follow its futures to present frequent fluctuations. Generally speaking, soybean meal will be forced to fall and may fall below 3,000 yuan/tonne if there is a trade truce after the meeting; but if not, it will rally sharply to 3,400-3,500 yuan/tonne. Investors need to remain cautious for the uncertainties in later market, and buyers can replenish in small batches on the dips and must be prudent when buying those large hikes.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays stable to rise today, of which it is 2,340-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,340, stable; Guangdong 2,400, stable; Fujian 2,520, up 50). Rapeseed meal market is inactive amid aquaculture slack season, coupled with the ASF contagion to Sichuan Province. Meanwhile, even if there is no trade truce, domestic soybean market will see a smaller-than-expected supply gap after a fastest seeding pace of Brazilian soybean at its record. Due to upcoming talks between the US and Chinese presidents, rapeseed meal market will have limited space for rebounds and may fluctuate frequently, so buyers can take hand-to-mouth tactic and replenish moderately on the dips if out of stock.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 71,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 57,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. While foreign market remains steady, inventory pressure keeps mounting at port due to the flat trading volume. As holders are watching for the fishing situations, the market is predicted to have limited room for volatility.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE post large rebounds today after a report that US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expected the US and China would reach a framework agreement at best on the G20 sidelines and the US would raise the tariff on Chinese goods on January 1 as planned. Cottonseed meal is bolstered to stop falling to steady after a soybean meal spot price hike by 20-70 yuan/tonne. But buyers remain cautious amid weak demands from aquaculture and poultry, so cottonseed meal market will see few rises, and may post narrow adjustments and just slight rebounds at lows in the short term. Buyers can replenish in small batches on the dips.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
