I．National stocks
This week (as of Nov. 16th), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 425,200 tonnes, up 22,600 tonnes by 5.6% from 402,600 tonnes last week, yet down 10,400 tonnes by 2.4% from 435,600 tonnes month-on-month, and down 87,500 tonnes by 17.1% from 512,700 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 101,700 tonnes, up 14,600 tonnes by 16.8% from 87,100 tonnes last week.
Domestic palm oil stock continues to recover this week, which can be attributed to the weak performance of crude oil and palm oil futures at home and abroad, though the spread has been enlarged to 1,080 yuan/tonne between palm oil and soybean oil by this Friday, up 102 yuan/tonne from 978 yuan/tonne last week. In addition, the blending demand for palm oil will also get restrained as the weather cools down. Amid slack shipments on current market, palm oil only trades by a total of 4,300 tonnes this week.
Importers are still acquiring vessels of palm oil under profitable imports recently, so that later import volume will see a rise. According to Cofeed, import volume of 24-degree palm oil will increase to around 450,000 tonnes in December. Later inventory will post an upward trend amid waning demand with weather turning cold.
Fig.: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods arrivals
Later arrival is forecast to rise as importers have placed relatively more orders recently. According to Cofeed, import volume is raised 20,000 tonnes to 550,000-600,000 tonnes for November (24-degree palm oil 420,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000-150,000 tonnes), raised 50,000 tonnes to 580,000-600,000 tonnes for December (24-degree palm oil 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000-150,000 tonnes), and 410,000-430,000 tonnes for January, 2019 (24-degree palm oil 280,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).
