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Soybean and Soybean Meal Stocks and Amounts in Contracts Weekly (Week 46, 2018)

2018-11-20 www.cofeed.com

      Soybean: Soybean stock has been reducing since October amid a small volume of soybean arrival at port, but the reduction is smaller than expected as operation rate has dropped due to swollen inventories of soybean meal under slow shipments. This week (as of Nov. 16th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 6,386,300 tonnes, down 111,300 tonnes by 1.71% from 6,497,600 tonnes last week, yet up 67.27% from 3,855,000 tonnes of the same week last year. The volume of soybean arriving at port will be still small later, under which soybean inventory may keep declining. And if trade frictions cannot be resolved soon, soybean supply will get tight from December to February.


      

      Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

      Soybean meal: Soybean meal trades light for most of the week, with a smaller volume than last week, so that its inventory has increased marginally. This week (as of Nov. 16th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal refineries totals n1,027,600 tonnes, up 52,100 tonnes by 5.34% from 975,500 tonnes last week, and up by 63.81% from 627,300 tonnes of the same week last year. The crush volume will dwindle to 1.67 Mln tonnes next week (week 47), but the increment of soybean meal stock will be narrow as downstream companies will just place small orders on account of weak futures and demands.


      

      Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

      Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills continue to decline this week. As of November 16th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 4,452,100 tonnes unfinished, down 658,300 tonnes by 12.88% from 5,110,400 tonnes last week, and down by 26.70% from 6,073,880 tonnes of the same period last year.

      
      Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years