Today (Nov. 20th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable to fall today, among which Non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock, Russian soybean goes down by 20 yuan/tonne to 3,580 yuan/tonne, and GM soybean is not offered. US soybean slumped overnight on a lower expectation for a US-China trade agreement later this month after US Vice President Mike Pence took aim at China’s Belt and Road Initiative at an OPEC summit, which finally closed without a routine joint statement this time. This has brought negative pressure to distribution market of imported soybean. But importers are cautious in purchasing with the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US presidents later this month, so no imported soybean will arrive at ports recently. The overall market is now supported by the small supply on distribution market at ports. Generally, distribution market will probably stay stable to adjust narrowly before the meeting between the two countries’ presidents.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed price keeps steady today, which can be attributed to its small volume from Xinjiang amid traffic tensions and expensive freights, as well as ginning plants willingness to hoard for a higher price in other areas. But the overall market is now curbed as oil mills remain cautious in and have even stopped purchasing high-priced cottonseed in face of an increasing volume of new cottonseed. Oils and meals may burden with pressure due to the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders later this month, so short-term cottonseed market may fluctuate narrowly and buyers can just take hand-to-mouth basis.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean slumped overnight on a lower expectation for a US-China trade agreement later this month after US Vice President Mike Pence took aim at China’s Belt and Road Initiative at an OPEC summit, which finally closed without a routine joint statement this time. Despite such positive factors from trade disputes, oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) point to modest declines for fundamental pressure. Both soybean oil and palm oil spots slip and trade a little. Currently, soybean supply gap will be smaller than anticipated in China as Brazil will be able to harvest its soybean within one month. Besides, due to large global inventories of palm oil and weak international crude oil, the overall oil market will likely extend weak fluctuations before the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents. If trade conflicts are settled at the meeting, oil market will be forced to maintain its soft trend until the start of stockpiles in the run up the Chinese Spring Festival; but if not, oil market may welcome rebounds in early December, especially if the stockpiling is brought forward. Buyers are suggested to keep a light stock on account of the uncertainties in trade spats.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,300-5,390 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,310-5,320, Rizhao 5,370, Zhangjiagang 5,390, and Guangzhou 5,300).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,170-4,320 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 20-40 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,310-4,320, down 30; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,250, down 40; Guangzhou 4,170, down 20; Xiamen 4,350, down 30).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil slips today, of which it is 6,010-6,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Fujian 6,080, down 20; Guangdong 6,020; Guangxi 6,030, down 20). While oil market is trapped in a glut amid high inventories of domestic rapeseed oil and Southeast Asian palm oil, stockpiles in run up to the Chinese Spring Festival will only start in December. Besides, forward soybean supply in China will present a smaller-than-expected gap, for Brazilian soybean will be available to harvested within one month after being seeded at an unprecedented pace. On the whole, due to uncertainties in trade disputes, rapeseed oil market may post weak fluctuations by the end of this month, and buyers are suggested to keep a light stock.
Cottonseed oil: US soybean ended lower last night upon a depressed prospect for a US-China trade deal after the APEC summit closed without a routine joint statement, but oils extend their losses for large fundamental pressure. Cottonseed oil slips by 50 yuan/tonne amid slow shipments and soybean oil spots fall by 10-30 yuan/tonne today. But the decline is limited by oil mills’ reluctance to sell on account of low prices and poor crush margins. On the whole, short-term cottonseed oil may present narrow fluctuations and buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
